Ambassador Burns Hopeful About Future US-China Relations

WASHINGTON — Last month, President Biden met with China’s President Xi Jinping at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in California. This was the leaders’ first meeting in a year, and while it didn’t yield any major breakthroughs, after years of deteriorating relations, there was an effort to reopen lines of communication.

U.S. Ambassador to China Nicholas Burns accompanied Biden and was with him as he spoke with the Chinese leader about the war between Russia and Ukraine, Israel and Hamas, fentanyl flowing into the U.S., artificial intelligence and American restrictions on Chinese access to high-end technology, among other topics.

Burns, speaking at Brookings Institution, a nonprofit policy institution, on Dec. 15, said this minor easing of diplomatic tensions was the culmination of months of efforts to improve relations between the countries and avoid “decoupling.”

“I don’t feel optimistic about the future of U.S.-China relations,” Burns said. “Because I’ve lived the past — the roller coaster past — I wouldn’t say I’m optimistic. Maybe realistic. Hopeful. But [being] hopeful is different from being optimistic.

“We are vying for global power as well as regional power,” he said. “I think we’re systemic rivals.”

The fact that the two most powerful militaries in the world, which also have two of the strongest economies, would be competitive, is not unusual.

Burns said the two nations are competing for strategic military power and they are in an ideological fight. In particular, he condemned the Chinese for their intellectual property and human rights practices.

What strikes him, however, is the “honesty of the debate.”

“We know where we are competing,” he said, but as the leaders weigh political, security, commercial, economic and consular issues, he suggested that the United States, at least, is working to ensure competition does not veer into conflict.

Reflecting on the meeting last month, Burns mentioned the sense of mutual respect he continues to feel between Biden and Xi.

“They listen to each other. They’ve spent a lot of time together over the years they have known each other,” he said. “They are able to disagree constructively. I thought the quality of conversation [at the summit] … is our best working relationship.”

Given this and the number of high-level visits — including Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, and a congressional delegation led by Sen. Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y. — relations between the nations are more active than they have been in at least five years.

“I want to introduce the idea of complexities,” Burns told the audience. “A single, one-dimensional shot that this is only a competitive relationship, it doesn’t get to the heart of what the relationship is.”

He said, instead, that the complex bilateral relationship between the two nations “is the most consequential relationship that the U.S. has now, but particularly will have, for the next couple of decades.”

“We spend the majority of our time, competing, advancing in the trade, technology, human rights, but we’ve also got to work with China on … other engagement areas because our interests are aligned,” he said, adding that these interests aren’t weighted evenly, “the competitive balance is certainly weighted heavier.”

Increasingly critical global issues including climate change, food security and health outcomes are important for maintaining a working relationship between the two superpowers, as well as how important China continues to be for the American economy.

“The largest market for American agriculture in the world is China,” Burns reminded. One-fifth of all U.S. agricultural exports go to China and Chinese tourism is a $30 billion business for the American economy.

Burns expressed his desire that the two nations can wage their competition “practically and peacefully,” continuing on the path of open dialogue from the APEC Summit.

“What makes the relationship complex,” he said, “is the fact that we are competing, but we’re also engaged in China, and we have to engage in China. We have to work on climate change together. We have to work together on fentanyl. We have to engage on global public health.”

In addition to high-level diplomatic relations, people-to-people connections like student exchange programs and tourism are two areas of focus for Burns, who believes any future for U.S.-China relations will need to bring the American and Chinese people back together again.

“We need young Americans to learn Mandarin … to have an experience of China,” he said. “And we need [Chinese youth] … to understand this country, to understand democracy.

“I think we are waging a battle of ideas,” Burns said. “But the people of China are not our enemy. No person in their right mind should want this relationship to end up in conflict or war. We have to develop a relationship where we can compete responsibly, but bring our people together.”

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