Voters to Decide Key Contests, Ballot Questions in Multiple States

WASHINGTON — It was a sight you don’t often see while driving up Bay View Road near Alexandria, Virginia.

Strolling in a parking lot, a wide smile across his face, was a man who looked to be in his late 70s, dressed almost head to toe in American flags.

The flag pants and flag shirt and flag suit jacket made him look for all the world like a modern-day Uncle Sam who had gone a little soft in the middle.

But it was the pins and buttons and stickers that made the outfit. Affixed to his lapels and the straw boater atop his head, he looked a little like an old-time TGI Fridays waiter gone mad with “flair.”

And the funny thing was, no one hurrying from the parking lot to the Safeway or the CVS or any of a number of other stores seemed to notice.

When an election day is in the offing, you just kind of expect these kinds of things.

While this is considered an “off-year” election, voters in several states will head to the polls on Tuesday to decide key races and ballot questions.

Two unusually competitive governors’ races in Kentucky and Mississippi, both of which are considered deeply red states, are being read like tea leaves for clues forecasting the outcome of the 2024 presidential election, while the balance of power — vis-a-vis Republicans and Democrats, another bellwether of next year — is in play in Virginia and, finally, abortion rights are the focus of ballot a initiative in Ohio.

The Races for Governor

In Kentucky and Mississippi two incumbent governors are bidding for reelection in contests that are widely expected to be decided by single digits.

The Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear is popular across Kentucky, a state that tends to tilt toward Democrats for the governorship, but the Republican party has been making steady inroads here since Beshear was first elected governor in 2019.

That kept his opponent, Republican Attorney General Daniel Cameron, in the race and, according to AdImpact, pushed the incumbent to outspend his opponent by a better than 5-to-1 ratio on television advertising.

In fact, as the race entered its final week, spending in the Kentucky gubernatorial race was approaching $70 billion.

Much of the money Beshear has been spending has come directly from the Kentucky Democratic Party, said Brendan Glavin, deputy research director for OpenSecrets, a nonprofit based in Washington, D.C., that tracks data on campaign finance and lobbying.

Data from the organization suggests more that $7 million of his war chest came directly from the party.

Despite the epic spend, Beshear still headed into this election Tuesday garnering just 50% in a smattering of late polls.

“His hovering about 50% is less a sign of weakness in Beshear, than an indication of Republican strength in the state,” said Scott Lasley, professor and chair of the Department of Political Science at Western Kentucky University.

“The governor is running well ahead of other Democratic candidates,” Lasley continued. “The problem is the tightness of the contest in a state where voter registration data underestimates Republican strength.

In 2019, Beshear overperformed in the Kentucky suburbs that lie just south of Cincinnati, Ohio, a factor that helped him eke out a narrow win over then-Gov. Matt Bevin, a Republican. However, he narrowly lost in Kentucky’s next most populous region, the so-called “collar” counties around Lexington.

“Beshear is stronger than he was in 2019, but Bevin had way more baggage coming into the race than Cameron does,” Lasley said.

That’s made Kentucky effectively a toss-up Tuesday, with both candidates seen as having a floor of support of about 48% and a ceiling of about 52%.

“If the race ends up being as close as it looks like it could be — making it similar to 2019 — anything and everything could be the key to the outcome,” said Lasley. “It’s a contest fraught with uncertainty.

“Beshear is hoping to run up the margins in places like Louisville and Lexington and key counties that he was able to win in 2015 including Warren,” he continued. “Counties like Scott, Oldham, Campbell, etc. will be critical.

“Cameron is hoping to do well in Trump country in eastern and western Kentucky. And to bring in some folks that defected from Bevin in 2019,” Lasley said.

Throughout the campaign, Beshear has emphasized his record, including the number of economic development announcements the state has seen under his watch. 

“He has leaned on abortion as a campaign issue, arguing that Republicans have gone too far,” Lasley said.

Cameron, meanwhile, has been running on social and cultural issues, emphasizing the endorsement he received from Trump, and trying to tie Beshear to President Joe Biden, who is highly unpopular with a portion of the state’s electorate. 

“It is a deliberate strategy to veer right and embrace Trump,” Lasley said. 

“Another issue, the handling of COVID, will be a factor for some voters on both sides,” he added.

Asked whether the outcome of the race will be a harbinger of things to come in 2024, Lasley cautioned against interpreting the race that way.

“The problem with that kind of analysis is that the turnout is just so much smaller than in a presidential election year,” he said.

“Now, what it might do is provide some insight into the staying power of Trump in places where he has been strongest in the past,” Lasley said. “For that reason, it will actually be more interesting to look at how down-ballot Republicans fare compared to 2019 on a county-by-county basis.”

In Mississippi, incumbent Republican Gov. Tate Reeves is facing a determined challenge from state Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley, a Democrat. A third candidate, Black independent Gwendolyn Gray, dropped out of the race and has since endorsed Presley. Her name, however, remains on the ballot.

Polling in the state has been all over the place, either giving Reeves a significant lead of as much as 8 points, or a negligible 1-to-2-point advantage.

If the prognosticators who have been looking at the race are right, Presley, a distant relative of Elvis Presley, will have to significantly outperform past Democratic presidential candidates with the state’s White vote, while garnering most of the Black vote.

If those two things come to pass, Presley could pull off the upset. As one instate pundit put it, he needs to go “30 and 30,” meaning he needs to get about 30% of the White vote, and for Blacks to comprise at least 30% of those who actually cast a vote Tuesday.

“The narrative that has surrounded this election is that Gov. Reeves is unusually unpopular among Republicans,” said John M. Bruce, chair of the Department of Political Science at the University of Mississippi.

“Mostly this is a function of conservatives not thinking he has done enough for them, but he has also been damaged by the welfare scandal here in the state, though it is far from clear how much that will really matter,” Bruce said.

The scandal Bruce referred to revolves around the mishandling of federal funds disbursed by the Mississippi Department of Human Services. In February 2020, the Mississippi state auditor arrested six people, including the department’s former director, and a subsequent report identified $94 million in questionable spending by the department.

The scandal, which is still making its way through the criminal justice system, briefly made national headlines after the auditing investigation found money was made available to two retired athletes, the NFL’s Brett Favre and former wrestler Brett DiBiase.

“I think turnout is crucial, but that is always a safe thing for a political scientist to say!” Bruce admitted. 

“For Presley to win, conservatives have to express their displeasure by staying home and the African American vote needs to spike. Getting both of those to happen may be like trying to thread a needle on a windy day — possible but pretty difficult,” he said.

Generally speaking, Bruce said, state elections in Mississippi “have been pretty boring” since then-Gov. Ronnie Musgrove lost to Haley Barbour in 2003. 

“Democratic candidates often get low 40%. Jim Hood made the last race closer, but he had been a state name for three terms and still could not win,” Bruce said. “If this was a ‘normal’ race, I would guess Reeves should win by 12-15 points. My hunch is that it is not normal, but I am not sure how much that will really move the needle. This is a consistently red state where partisan loyalty is dominant.”

Like Lasley, Bruce was asked what the outcome of the race might portend for 2024.

“Frankly, I doubt there is much we’ll learn about 2024 from this race,” he said. “First, neither candidate has tried to nationalize the race — other than the Republicans talking about Presley getting money from out of state and Trump cutting an ad for Reeves. 

“Second, I think the biggest variable is Reeves himself. How much will voters express their lukewarm support?” Bruce said. “Should Presley win, I would ignore anyone that claims it is an indicator of a big year next year for Democrats. I would also reject any national lessons from a Reeves reelection. This is not like Ohio, where a national issue is on the ballot. This is largely just Mississippi politics.”

In Virginia, Race Could Be Youngkin’s Coronation or Waterloo

His name won’t appear anywhere on the ballot, but most people who talk about the election transpiring in Virginia on Tuesday see it first, last and in the middle as a referendum on Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin and a determinant of his future.

In 2021, Republicans won a narrow 52-48 majority in the state’s House of Delegates, while winning almost every statewide constitutional office. 

The Democrats hold a slim 22-17 majority in the state Senate, and an additional state Senate seat most recently held by a Republican is vacant.

All 40 state Senate seats and 100 state House seats will be on the ballot on Tuesday, but the balance of power will likely be determined by a handful of competitive districts in three distinct parts of the state: northern Virginia near Washington, D.C., central Virginia near Richmond and southwest Virginia in the Hampton Roads area.

If the Republicans flip the state Senate and gain full control of the state Legislature, Youngkin will have a virtually free hand to enact conservative proposals on abortion, education and taxes, and, in the view of many, will be a step closer to a potential Republican presidential run in 2028 if the Democrats hold the White House next year.

If the Democrats win on Tuesday, it will be interpreted as a sign that the bloom is off Youngkin’s rose and that he’s peaked politically.

Heading into election day, the state’s biggest and most high-profile race has been the state Senate contest pitting Republican Juan Pablo Segura, a 35-year-old entrepreneur, against Democrat Russet Perry, 39, a former Central Intelligence Agency officer and prosecutor. 

“Whoever wins this seat probably is in the majority,” said J. Miles Coleman, associate editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, in an interview with The Wall Street Journal last week.

The battle to represent the state’s 31st Senatorial District, which encompasses parts of Loudoun and Fauquier counties in the outer Washington suburbs, is likely to have been the most expensive of the state’s races this year.

As of late October the two campaigns had spent more than $11 million, mostly on an endless series of televisions spots.

“One of the things that’s interesting in Virginia is there are no contribution limits at all, so you get a lot of big individual money or people who start PACs that are essentially just conduits for big donors,” said OpenSecrets’ Glavin.

“For instance, the Renew Virginia PAC that is backing Segura received about $2 million from a company that’s run by his father. And that’s not uncommon in Virginia.”

Glavin went on to explain that even without contribution limits on individuals in Virginia, there are advantages to someone forming a PAC of your own or contributiing to a PAC that aligns with a specific candidate.

“The main benefit is that it gives donors a little bit of cover,” he said. “Obviously, it’s not hard to figure out where the money came from, but it still affords them some ability to not have their name direction associated with giving a contribution to a candidates in case they’re afraid of getting some blowback — and this is especially true if the donor happens to be a very public-facing company.”

Glavin said when it comes to the Virginia race a number of factors contribute to it being the most closely watched and likely, the most expensive state in play this election cycle.

“It’s kind of a combination of things coming together,” he said.

“First, you’ve got the state Senate and Assembly being very close, in terms of the majority in each … and that’s always going to generate a level of interest and some competetive races.

“At the same time, we also have these big issues at stake as well. So it’s election where it’s not only about who controls the respective chambers, but about who controls the chamber with respect to a specific issue, in this case abortion,” he said.

As a result Glavin said, the vote in Virginia this year really is a referendum on the abortion issue.

“That’s because if Republicans win control of both chambers, they’ll be able to pass the restrictions he wants easily and send them to him for his signature,” he said.

“On top of all this — and aside from the issues — you have a governor, in Glenn Youngkin, who has taken on quite a national profile and there’s a lot of speculation as to his future.

“Of course, this is fueled by the fact that Virginia has term limits for government. So there’s already been a lot of talk about what he’s going to do next, and this year’s races could be a big factor in deciding that.” he said.

Youngkin himself has hit the campaign trail for Segura, telling voters that the race is “critical” and that the first-time candidate represents “the path to our majority.”

Among Segura’s key promises is to support Youngkin’s proposed 15-week abortion limit with exceptions for rape, incest and to protect the mother’s life. 

Existing state law allows abortion until about 26 weeks and thereafter if the mother’s life or health is at serious risk. 

Perry by contrast has vowed to not only protect the current law, but to enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution.

The other key races in Virginia appear to be in Senate District 24, where incumbent Democratic state Sen. Monty Mason is running for reelection against Republican Danny Diggs, the former longtime York County sheriff. 

Although Mason has outraised Diggs in terms of campaign contributions, this seat presents the GOP’s best shot at taking down a Democratic incumbent, as Youngkin carried the district by three points and Democrats won by one point in 2022.

There is also an open seat in the same general Hampton Roads area, in Senate District 17, where Democrat Clinton Jenkins is running against Republican Emily Brewer.

In the Short Pump area of Henrico County, a suburb of Richmond, incumbent Republican state Sen. Siobhan Dunnavant is facing current state Del. Schuyler VanValkenburg in a district that President Joe Biden carried by 15 points in 2020.

Significantly, Dunnavant has leaned into her background as an OB-GYN doctor to fend off Democratic attacks over abortion.

While Republicans appeared to have more of a chance of holding onto control of the 100-member House of Delegates on Tuesday, a number of races in the Northern Virginia counties of Loudoun, Prince William and Stafford have tightened up.

Of particular note is the district encompassing Loudoun County — House District 30 — where Democrat Rob Banse received a surge of donations after his largely grassroots, folksy campaign caught on in the district. He is running against Republican Geary Higgins.

Another race being closely watched by many is in House District 57, in Richmond’s western suburbs, where Republican David Owen is running against Democrat Susanna Gibson.

Gibson, you might remember, ran into a spot of bother in September when it was revealed she had performed sex acts with her husband in live, online videos. The scandal, such as it was, resulted in a fundraising bump for Owen, but the race is still seen as highly competitive.

When the dust settles on Tuesday, one of the questions that will be asked of this race is whether the Republican Party of Virginia erred when it sent anti-Gibson materials to voters that featured censored screenshots from the videos. 

Ohio Abortion Ballot in the Spotlight

On Tuesday, voters in Ohio will be in the spotlight as they queue to decide the fate of State Issue 1, which would enshrine robust abortion rights protections into the state constitution.

State Republican leaders, including Gov. Mike DeWine, tried to short-circuit today’s vote last August, when they held a vote on whether to raise the bar for passing constitutional amendment ballot issues from 50% to 60% and otherwise make it harder for outside groups to present such ballot issues to voters.

In that vote, which was seen as a proxy fight foreshadowing today’s balloting, the pro-abortion rights side won by 14 percentage points.

Since August DeWine and his wife, Fran, have been campaigning feverishly against Issue 1, saying it goes too far in a pro-abortion rights direction.

The Ohio Democratic Party, meanwhile, has accused Republican leaders, and particularly Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose, of trying to silence and “intentionally mislead” Ohio voters.

“First, LaRose made himself the face of August’s State Issue 1, an amendment designed to silence Ohioans and benefit special interests, which cost Ohio taxpayers $18 million,” the state Democrats say on their website.

“After his August amendment flopped, LaRose rewrote the ballot language for the November amendment to ‘intentionally mislead’ and confuse Ohioans,” they said, adding, “recent polls show that LaRose’s language has a measurable impact on support for State Issue 1 when compared to the original ballot language and could be ‘critical’ to the outcome despite a majority of Ohioans supporting abortion rights.”

And in a last-ditch effort, the Ohio Democrats said, LaRose “quietly purged” nearly 27,000 Ohio voters from the voting rolls ahead of the November election — leaving voters little-to-no time to re-register and cast their ballots on Tuesday.

Dan can be reached at [email protected] and at https://twitter.com/DanMcCue