COVID Cases Up, but Nowhere Near Pandemic Numbers

ATLANTA — Hospitalizations due to COVID-19 have risen 12.5% across the country in the past week, but the latest data published by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shows that what some are calling a “surge” in cases is nowhere near the numbers experienced in 2021 and 2022.

In fact, today’s high — about 6.2 million hospitalized — is still well below the pandemic lows of June 2021 and April 2022, the agency’s graphic says.

But that hasn’t stopped many from worrying whether things will get a whole lot worse heading deeper into the fall.

They point to scenario modeling the CDC published in June that tracked six scenarios through April 19, 2025 (a 104-week horizon starting on April 16 of this year).

Based on a national ensemble of the work of eight research teams, the main period of COVID-19 activity is expected to occur in late fall and early winter over the next two years, with median peak incidence between November and mid-January. 

Lowest incidences are projected to occur in August of each year.

Scott Pauley, a spokesman for the CDC in Atlanta, said in an email to The Well News that the agency’s genomic surveillance indicates that the majority of current COVID-19 infections are caused by the EG.5 and other variants closely related to the Omicron strains that have been circulating since early 2022. 

Despite the fact multiple parts of the country have been reporting their first upticks of the virus in months, he emphasized that “currently available treatments and vaccines are expected to continue to be effective against this variant.” 

He also noted that the agency will continue to monitor new variants and provide the latest data on its COVID Data Tracker.

Even assuming the uptick in cases continues, the CDC said weekly hospitalizations and deaths are likely to stay within last year’s range — when the U.S. was considered well into recovery from the pandemic — and are unlikely to hit Delta or Omicron peaks. 

Further, weekly hospitalizations are likely to remain at low or medium community transmission levels and unlikely to reach high transmission levels (>20 weekly hospitalizations per 100,000), as defined by the CDC.

Pauley also stressed that vaccination continues to be the best way to protect against severe outcomes of COVID-19.

Dan can be reached at [email protected] and @DanMcCue