It’s Super Tuesday: What You Should Be Watching

WASHINGTON — This being March, you’ll surely forgive us if we ruminate a moment about this month’s annual holiday, St. Patrick’s Day.

Specifically we have in mind an old Guinness TV ad in which two young men wake up and excitedly run to the bedroom of another, excitedly exclaiming “It’s St. Patrick’s Day.”

They then run downstairs together to find a pile of gifts awaiting them, including a tapped keg, a six pack and a case of the finest Guinness has to offer.

If the scene reminds one of Christmas time, it’s supposed to; the tagline is “Treat St. Patrick’s Day like a real Holiday.”

For those obsessed with politics, the arrival of Super Tuesday every four years stirs many of the same emotions.

Today will see the biggest single tranche of elections of the presidential primary season, with votes being tallied in 16 states and one territory, American Samoa.

For the record, the states are Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont and Virginia. 

In addition, Democrats in Iowa — remember Iowa? — will release the results of their mail-in presidential preference results tonight — and its primary day for Democrats living abroad.

Tuesday’s main contests will be on the Republican side of the ledger, where former President Donald Trump currently has 273 delegates, compared to Nikki Haley’s 43. 

With 865 up for grabs on Super Tuesday, Trump won’t be able to formally lay claim to the title “presumptive GOP nominee” after tonight, but he could come close.

To get the nomination, he needs to reach the magic number of 1,215, and even with a clean sweep on Tuesday, he’ll have to wait until at least March 12, when primaries are held in Georgia, Mississippi and Washington state and Republicans hold their caucus in Hawaii.

On the Democratic side, President Joe Biden currently has 206 delegates, while his challengers, Rep. Dean Phillips, of Minnesota, and self-help author Marianne Williamson, who recently restarted her campaign, have none.

Like Trump, Biden will sweep up a huge number of delegates tonight, but he’ll still fall short of the 1,968 he needs to clinch the nomination.

The wildcard in Biden’s delegate count is how the Democratic National Committee will ultimately decide to handle delegates from New Hampshire, which broke party rules intended to ensure South Carolina voted first, by holding its Democratic primary in January.

As of right now, however, the earliest Biden can reach his magic number is March 19, when primaries are held in Arizona, Florida, Illinois, Kansas and Ohio.

One thing to watch going forward is how delegates are awarded. In California, considered Super Tuesday’s biggest prize with 169 GOP delegates at stake, all of the delegates will be awarded to the candidate who wins the majority of the vote.

This winner-take-all scenario will become increasingly common on the Republican side as the contest moves to later states. The idea is to wrap up contested elections sooner and move on to the general election — and focusing on Biden — sooner.

Democrats, by comparison, award delegates proportionally in every one of their caucuses and primaries, theoretically making it easier for trailing candidates to pick up delegates.

The rules for Democrats also make it possible for the party’s voters to cast their ballots for “uncommitted” or other ballot options, which can receive delegates if they reach a vote threshold of 15%, either statewide or in a congressional district.

Such a scenario recently played out in Michigan, where “uncommitted” — mainly a protest vote against Biden’s policies regarding the war in Gaza — actually received enough votes to garner two delegates.

Seven of the states voting on Super Tuesday allow some kind of “uncommitted” option on their ballots.

For those interested in a little history, the term “Super Tuesday” first came into wide use in the 1970s, but didn’t take on any real relevance until the mid-1980s, when states began moving their primaries up in a bid to increase their influence.

This was particularly true of Southern states that hoped to push the Democratic Party toward a more conservative nominee in 1988 after the decidedly liberal Walter Mondale was crushed by the incumbent Republican Ronald Reagan in 1984.

Reagan garnered 58.8% of the vote to Mondale’s 40.6%, but in doing so Reagan won 49 states, with President Jimmy Carter’s former vice president carrying only Minnesota and the District of Columbia.

If Southern Democrats thought moving their primaries earlier would help their party, they were mistaken.

In 1988, Sen. Al Gore, of Tennessee, and the Rev. Jesse Jackson essentially split the Super Tuesday states, and Gov. Michael Dukakis, of Massachusetts won the party’s nomination.

In the eight Super Tuesdays that have occurred over the 36 years that have elapsed since then, however, a clear front-runner has emerged from this cluster of contests and gone on to become the party’s nominee.

The state by state contests look like this:

Alabama primary

52 delegates available for Democrats and 50 for Republicans.

After a tough aand prolonged redistricting fight, Alabamians will head to the polls using a new Congressional map that gives Black voters more of a chance to elect a representative of their choice.

The new map, created by a special master, could have profound implications as it makes it possible for Alabama to send two Black representatives to Washington for the first time in its history.

And because Black voters typically favor Democrats, it also could help determine control of the Congress, where Republicans currently hold the tiniest of margins in the House.

The contest could be but a historical blip, however, as the fight over the map is ongoing. A trial expected to begin in 2025 will determine whether the map being used for today’s vote remains in place through the next census.

Alaska Republican Party presidential primary

29 delegates available.

American Samoa Democratic Party presidential caucuses

6 delegates available.

American Samoa can participate in the presidential primary process but cannot vote in the November general election.

Arkansas primary 

31 delegates available for Democrats and 40 for Republicans.

California primary

424 delegates available for Democrats and 169 for Republicans. 

Other races on the ballot in the state include 52 Congressional races, a U.S. Senate race and U.S. Senate special election race.

What has been a highly contentious race to succeed the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein in the U.S. Senate ultimately will come down to two candidates after Tuesday’s vote.

Though the California primary features several candidates, three Democrats and one Republican are at the top of the polls.

The Three Democrats are Reps. Barbara Lee, Katie Porter and Adam Schiff. The Republican is former baseball great Steve Garvey, who played first base for the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres from 1969 to 1987.

The top two vote getters will face off in the November.

Colorado primary

72 delegates available for Democrats and 37 for Republicans.

Democrats Abroad Global Presidential Primary

March 05, 2024 – March 12, 2024

21 delegates available.

Iowa Democratic Party releases mail-in presidential preference vote results

50 delegates available.

Maine primary 

24 delegates available for Democrats and 20 for Republicans.

Massachusetts primary

92 delegates available for Democrats and 40 for Republicans.

Minnesota primary 

75 delegates available for Democrats and 39 for Republicans.

North Carolina primary 

116 delegates available for Democrats and 74 for Republicans. 

Other races on the ballot include 14 Congressional races and the gubernatorial primary.

Gov. Roy Cooper is term-limited under the North Carolina State Constitution, and Attorney General Josh Stein is hoping to hold the governorship for the Democrats.

Before he can run in the general election, however, he has to prevail over a field of four other hopefuls. As voters head to the polls on Tuesday, Stein, who has Cooper’s endorsement, is expected to win handily.

But at least one other candidate believes he has a shot at an upset, former state court justice Mike Morgan.

As for the Republicans, Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson is polling as well as Stein on the Democratic side, and appears headed to victory over two other candidates.

Robinson also has the support of former President Donald Trump, but that’s the cudgel one of his opponents is trying to use against him.

Like Nikki Haley in the presidential contest, Salisbury, N.C. attorney Bill Graham has been arguing that while Robinson may win the primary, he is certain to lose if voters make him the nominee.

Oklahoma primary

36 delegates available for Democrats and 43 for Republicans.

Tennessee primary

63 delegates available for Democrats and 58 for Republicans.

Texas primary

244 delegates available for Democrats and 161 for Republicans. 

Texas has the second largest number of available delegates, behind California.

Other competitions on the ballot include a Senate race and 38 congressional races, with runoffs scheduled for May 28 if required.

Utah Republican Party presidential caucus

Utah Republican Party caucus, including presidential preference poll to allocate 40 delegates.

Utah Democratic primary 

30 delegates available.

Vermont primary

16 delegates available for Democrats and 17 for Republicans.

Virginia primary

99 delegates available for Democrats and 48 for Republicans. 

Dan can be reached at [email protected] and at https://twitter.com/DanMcCue