New Poll Finds Race for Democratic Nomination in Pennsylvania is Tightening

Former Vice President Joe Biden continues to be the top choice for president among Pennsylvania voters, a new Franklin & Marshall College Poll finds, but the race for the Democratic nomination is tightening.

At the same time, the poll released Wednesday found that nearly three-out-of-five voters in the state don’t believe President Donald Trump deserves re-election — which is actually an improvement for him in the polls.

In January, the college’s pollsters found that 57% of Pennsylvanians don’t believe Trump deserves re-election, but that’s down from 59% in October and 61% in July.

As for the Democrats, the poll still has Biden out front, but his support has slipped to 22%, down from 30% in October.

Support for Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., is also on the wane, down from 17% to 14%, putting her in third place.

Sen. Bernie Sanders, with support from 15% of the respondents, came in second, while former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg is now in fourth place with the support of 7% of Pennsylvania Democrats.

Bloomberg hadn’t announced his candidacy in October and did not figure in that poll.

His showing puts him ahead of Pete Buttigieg (6%), Amy Klobuchar (5%) and Andrew Yang (5%).

Competition among the top three Democratic candidates is driven by ideology. Three in four Sanders (72%) and Warren (73%) supporters identify as liberal, compared to only one in two (40%) Biden supporters.

Democrats continue to say that healthcare (20%) is the top issue they are considering in selecting a presidential candidate and that honesty (42%) is the quality they most want in a candidate.

Pennsylvania voters told pollsters they are generally satisfied with the direction of the state and their personal finances.

Half (51%) of the state’s registered voters believe the state is “headed in the right direction.” Most voters report they are “better off” (33%) or the “same” (54%) financially compared to last year and most expect to be “better off” (31%) or the “same” (53%) next year—these economic sentiments are slightly more optimistic than those captured during the October poll.

Contrasting with their feelings about their home state, fewer (38%) registered voters believe that the United States is “headed in the right direction.”

About two in five (38%) registered voters in Pennsylvania believes President Trump is doing an “excellent” or “good” job as president, which is higher than the October Franklin & Marshall College Poll.

Nearly two-thirds (67%) of the state’s registered voters say they are “very interested” in the 2020 elections; interest in the general election is already as high as it was immediately prior to the 2018 mid-term election.

This survey reflects interviews with 628 Pennsylvania registered voters, including 292 Democrats, 251 Republicans and 85 independents, conducted by the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College from January 20-26, 2020.

The sample error for this survey is +/- 6.2 percentage points (+/- 9.0 percent for registered Democrats).  A complete methodological statement can be found in the full report.