Battleground States Voters Age 50 and Over Still Closely Divided on Election

September 10, 2020 by Reece Nations
American democracy on display in the Smithsonian Museum of American History. (Photo by Dan McCue)

Two sets of public opinion surveys commissioned by AARP across 11 key battleground states found a majority of likely voters aged 50 and older plan to cast their ballots either absentee or during the early voting period this election cycle.

AARP’s poll also found similar levels of support among likely voters in the 50-plus demographic for the candidates, former Vice President Joe Biden and incumbent President Donald Trump. The voters were contacted and surveyed “in the days leading up to and after Labor Day” and asked “who they would select for president if the election were held then.”

Voters were surveyed by AARP in the following states: Arizona; Colorado; Georgia; Florida; Iowa; Maine; Michigan; Montana; North Carolina; Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Most likely voters in all 11 of the states indicated they were not planning on casting their ballot on election day. Respondents said they “plan to vote either via absentee ballot or in person during the early voting period” 75% of the time in Arizona, 61% in Florida and North Carolina, and 59% in Michigan.

Concerns regarding reductions to U.S. Postal Service operations persist among a majority of voters in Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Maine and Montana. The respondents indicated they worried USPS service reductions might “prevent their votes from being counted in November.”

“If you look at historical trends, this is a big shift in how people are going to vote,” John Hishta, AARP’s senior vice president of campaigns, said in a statement. “When candidates address constituencies like ours, they need to do it now because people are already starting to vote.”

Biden is ahead of Trump 50% to 46%, respectively, among voters over age 50 in Pennsylvania, according to AARP. President Trump leads among voters aged 50 and older in Florida by a margin of 50% to 47%, 48% to 46% in Iowa, and 48% to 47% in Montana.

Biden’s lead margins were highest among Colorado and Maine voters, at 50% to 40% and 54% to 40%, respectively. Biden also leads in the 50-plus demographic 50% to 46% in Wisconsin, a key battleground state won by Trump in 2016.

Trump’s largest lead margin among all likely voters was 50% to 43% in Montana, according to the poll. Biden and Trump are virtually tied among all likely voters in North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona.

“The election will be decided in a handful of battleground states, and AARP’s survey results show that either candidate can win,” Nancy LeaMond, AARP executive vice president and chief advocacy and engagement officer, said in a statement. “One thing that isn’t in doubt is that 50+ voters will cast the majority of ballots. So, candidates need to address their concerns if they want to get across the goal line.”

Opinion Polls

New Marquette Poll Finds Biden Lead Over Trump Stable at Five Percentage Points
Opinion Polls
New Marquette Poll Finds Biden Lead Over Trump Stable at Five Percentage Points
October 28, 2020
by Dan McCue

The last Marquette Law School poll to be released before Election Day finds former Vice President Joe Biden the choice of 48% of likely voters in Wisconsin, with President Donald Trump trailing with the support of just 43% of likely voters. The poll found 7% of... Read More

Poll Shows Deadlocked Races for President, Senate Seats in Georgia
Opinion Polls
Poll Shows Deadlocked Races for President, Senate Seats in Georgia

ATLANTA — The race for president in Georgia is deadlocked in the final week of the campaign, with President Donald Trump and Joe Biden in a statistical tie in a state that hasn't voted Democratic for president since 1992. An Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll of likely voters released Monday showed Biden at 47% and Trump at... Read More

New Survey Shows Low Trump Job Approval, Weak National Confidence
Opinion Polls
New Survey Shows Low Trump Job Approval, Weak National Confidence
October 22, 2020
by Sara Wilkerson

Gallup has released a new survey showing President Trump’s job approval rating at 43.3%, marking one of the lowest approval ratings for an incumbent during his 15th quarter in office. The Gallup poll comes ahead of the last presidential debate this week before the 2020 election... Read More

Poll: Biden Draws Even With Trump in Texas; Hegar Closing in on Cornyn in Senate Race
Opinion Polls
Poll: Biden Draws Even With Trump in Texas; Hegar Closing in on Cornyn in Senate Race

AUSTIN, Texas — Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden has drawn even in Texas with President Donald Trump, and Democrat MJ Hegar is closing in on U.S. Sen. John Cornyn in the Quinnipiac University poll of likely Texas voters released Wednesday afternoon. "Biden and Trump find themselves in a Texas standoff, setting the stage for a bare-knuckle battle for 38 electoral votes," said... Read More

Trump Hasn’t Recovered From Tailspin Set Off by Raucous Debate Performance, Poll Shows
Opinion Polls
Trump Hasn’t Recovered From Tailspin Set Off by Raucous Debate Performance, Poll Shows

WASHINGTON — With three weeks left until election day, President Donald Trump has not recovered from the self-inflicted wounds of his first debate with Joe Biden and, instead, has sunk further behind his challenger, a new USC Dornsife poll shows. The latest data show the unusual... Read More

Democrats Aim for Senate Majority; the Polling Looks Favorable
Opinion Polls
Democrats Aim for Senate Majority; the Polling Looks Favorable

WASHINGTON — As Republicans inch closer to confirming Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court, and Joe Biden enjoys a national lead over Donald Trump in the presidential race, there’s also an intense battle going on for control of Congress. The 2016 election delivered Republicans the... Read More

News From The Well
scroll top