North Carolina Is a Delegate Prize on Super Tuesday. But It’s a Complicated One

CHARLOTTE, N.C. — Only two states have more Democratic delegates at stake than North Carolina on Super Tuesday. But who will get them?

Well, it’s complicated.

— It depends not just on how many votes a candidate gets but where he or she gets them.

— In a sense, candidates still in the race will be competing with those who’ve dropped out.

— And regardless of the primary outcome, so-called automatic delegates — once known as superdelegates — can support whoever they want.

“Of course it’s complicated,” said University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato. “It doesn’t have to be that complicated. … They have revised the rules every four or eight years. It’s really a fetish with Democrats.”

North Carolina’s primary will be one of 16 Democratic contests on March 3. For candidates they offer a delegate gold mine — a third of all the convention delegates will be determined that day.

North Carolina will have 122 delegates at the summer convention in Milwaukee. Only California, with nearly 500, and Texas, with 261, will have more up for grabs on Super Tuesday.

But how Democrats award delegates involves an intricate delegate calculus.

“As much as people will say it’s confusing and arcane, it is — I won’t argue about that,” said Josh Putnam, a Gastonia native and Wilmington-based political scientist who tracks the delegate selection process. “(But) it’s a system that has tended to work.”

LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION

Unlike long ago, Democratic primaries are no longer winner-take-all.

Instead delegates are basically apportioned in two ways: statewide and by congressional district.

In North Carolina, 38 delegates will be awarded proportionately based on statewide results. If a candidate gets 50% of the statewide vote, they get 50% of the statewide delegates. But there’s a catch: a candidate has to get 15% of the statewide vote to qualify for any delegates. Get 14% and you’re out of luck — and delegates.

The 15% threshold also applies in each of the state’s 13 congressional districts, which will determine 72 delegates. And when it comes to delegate math, some districts count more than others.

Basically, congressional districts with the most Democratic votes in the 2016 presidential and gubernatorial elections have more delegates.

The Triangle-based 4th District, for example, will have a prize of nine delegates. The heavily Democratic 12th, which includes most of Mecklenburg County, and the 2nd, in Wake County, each has eight.

On the other hand, the heavily Republican 13th District in the Piedmont and 5th District in the foothills have just three apiece.

So a candidate who does well in Mecklenburg or Wake County, for example, stands to get more delegates than one who performs the same in say Rowan or Alamance counties.

Complicating matters will be the performance of zombielike candidates.

Of the 15 Democrats on the presidential ballot in North Carolina, seven are no longer in the race. But their votes will count. That potentially could dilute the numbers for other candidates, making it harder to reach the 15% threshold.

“When you don’t allow for a cleansing of the ballot you end up making it more difficult for other candidates to reach 15%, which in turn makes their eventual nominee look weaker,” said Sabato.

DEMOCRAT’S AFFIRMATIVE ACTION GUIDELINES

In addition to the 110 delegates determined by statewide or district-wide results, there are a dozen “automatic” delegates.

Previously known as superdelegates, they’re members of Congress or state and party officials. They’re also essentially free agents, able to support a candidate of their choice, not necessarily the voters.’

But the other delegates will be chosen at district conventions April 25 and the state convention in June 6.

And Democrats have rules as to who they’ll be.

According to the party’s affirmative action guidelines, 44% of the delegates will be African American, 9% Hispanic and 1.6% Native American. Thirty-two percent will be under 36 and 7% over 65. Half will be men, half women.

“We are committed to having our delegates look like the state of North Carolina,” said party spokesman Robert Howard.

Though not probable, it’s possible that one candidate could win the statewide vote but not the most delegates.

“It depends on how those votes are distributed,” Putnam said.

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