facebook linkedin twitter

Changing Electorate Could Affect New Hampshire’s Primary

February 11, 2020by HOLLY RAMER, Associated Press
Students from local high schools and universities sit in the audience as they wait for the next speaker during the New Hampshire Youth Climate and Clean Energy Town Hall, Wednesday, Feb. 5, 2020, in Concord, N.H. (AP Photo/Mary Altaffer)

New Hampshire has been holding the first-in-the-nation presidential primary for 100 years, but a significant number of Tuesday’s ballots could be cast by newcomers to that storied tradition.

New Hampshire has one of the nation’s lowest percentages of native-born residents, with only a third of those age 25 and older having been born in the state. And one-fifth of the state’s potential voters either resided somewhere else four years ago or were not old enough to vote, according to a recent analysis of demographic trends by the University of New Hampshire.

Those shifts challenge some of the presumptions about New Hampshire voters and could affect Tuesday’s results, given that surveys suggest the newcomers and young voters are less conservative than the established residents.

“Many people think of New Hampshire as a place where people have lived for 10 generations and their ancestors signed the Constitution or Declaration of Independence, and, in fact, I know someone like that,” said Ken Johnson, senior demographer at the UNH Carsey School of Public Policy. “But New Hampshire is one of the most mobile states in the country.”

From 2016 to 2020, nearly 70,000 residents turned 18 and became eligible to vote, while 46,000 older residents died. During the same period, about 160,000 voting-age adults moved into the state, and about 150,000 moved out.

It’s unknown how that churn will shake out on Election Day. But according to University of New Hampshire Survey Center polls, both young residents and recent migrants are less likely to identify themselves as conservative than established residents are. Of the three groups, young residents are the most likely to identify as liberals, but they’re also the least likely to have registered to vote. Just 61% have done so, compared to 54% of migrants and 88% of established residents.

About 40% of the new residents in recent years came from Massachusetts, and an additional 30% came from other Northeastern states. About a quarter came from Southern or Western states, with the smallest share coming from the Midwest.

That small group included Martha Carlson, 48, who moved to Hollis from Chicago in 2018 and plans to register as a Democrat on Tuesday. Her husband is from Minnesota and likes his home state Sen. Amy Klobuchar, but Carlson said she is about 90% sure she’ll vote for former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg.

“He’s moderate, and we’re moderate people,” she said.

Alyssa McKeon and her family moved to Hopkinton in 2018 from Salem, Massachusetts. She said that while she is excited about a number of the Democratic candidates, it was a “no-brainer” to decide to back Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren.

“I’m a planner myself, and I deeply appreciate her comprehensive plans and her approach to how to actually get it done,” said McKeon, a 34-year-old registered Democrat who works for an education nonprofit. “I understand it’s going to take drastic changes to how we do business and how we finance things, and I think it’s time for an overhaul.”

No estimates are available regarding the racial makeup of the state’s new voters, and the state remains far less diverse than the rest of the nation. Overall, minorities made up 8.7% of the adult population in 2018, a statistic to which critics of the primary point in arguing New Hampshire doesn’t deserve its starring role in the presidential nominating process.

Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders’ campaign is banking on trying to bring new voters to the polls and has shown a particular strength with young people. Other campaigns have made a concerted push in the state’s college towns.

Ella Diers, who turned 18 in September, said she has been paying fairly close attention to the campaigns.

“I’m kinda leaning toward Pete Buttigieg. I like that he’s not extreme,” said Diers, of Concord. “I think he seems like just a very normal guy and not very polarizing to either side, which I think is important. He seems to have good values.”

She’s not a fan of President Donald Trump’s and is eager to cast a vote toward ending his time in office.

“I’m pretty excited. I think it’s pretty cool that I get to vote,” she said. “It’s definitely time for a change.”

2020 Elections

Biden's Big Bill on Brink of House Votes, But Fights Remain

WASHINGTON (AP) — Democrats in the House appear on the verge of advancing President Joe Biden’s $1.85 trillion-and-growing domestic policy package alongside... Read More

WASHINGTON (AP) — Democrats in the House appear on the verge of advancing President Joe Biden’s $1.85 trillion-and-growing domestic policy package alongside a companion $1 trillion infrastructure bill in what would be a dramatic political accomplishment — if they can push it to passage. The House scrapped votes... Read More

November 4, 2021
by Dan McCue
Murphy Narrowly Wins Reelection as New Jersey’s Governor

TRENTON, N.J. —The nail biter is over. New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy has been elected to a second term in... Read More

TRENTON, N.J. —The nail biter is over. New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy has been elected to a second term in the state’s highest office. As of Thursday morning, the Democratic incumbent was leading Republican challenger Jack Ciattarelli by 37,293 votes, with 91% of the state’s election... Read More

Biden Winds Up G-20 Summit With Dings at Russia, China

ROME (AP) — President Joe Biden wrapped up his time at the Group of 20 summit on Sunday trying to... Read More

ROME (AP) — President Joe Biden wrapped up his time at the Group of 20 summit on Sunday trying to convince Americans and the wider world that he's got things under control — and taking Russia, China and Saudi Arabia to task for not doing enough... Read More

Trump Lawyers Might be Penalized Over Michigan Election Case

DETROIT (AP) — A federal judge is considering whether to order financial penalties or other sanctions against some of former... Read More

DETROIT (AP) — A federal judge is considering whether to order financial penalties or other sanctions against some of former President Donald Trump's lawyers who signed onto a lawsuit last year challenging Michigan's election results. The lawsuit alleging widespread fraud was voluntarily dropped after a judge... Read More

June 15, 2021
by Tom Ramstack
Congress Begins Investigation of Alleged Justice Dept. Abuses

WASHINGTON -- A powerful congressional committee is beginning an investigation into reports the Justice Department secretly subpoenaed information about members... Read More

WASHINGTON -- A powerful congressional committee is beginning an investigation into reports the Justice Department secretly subpoenaed information about members of Congress and journalists during the Trump administration. The committee’s chairman said he was concerned the Justice Department “used criminal investigations as a pretext to spy... Read More

AP Interview: Disinformation Concerns Mail Voting Expert

ATLANTA (AP) — Amber McReynolds, CEO of The National Vote at Home Institute, helped state and local election officials prepare... Read More

ATLANTA (AP) — Amber McReynolds, CEO of The National Vote at Home Institute, helped state and local election officials prepare for the record number of mailed ballots cast during last year's presidential election. She also was recently confirmed by the Senate to serve on the Board... Read More

News From The Well
scroll top