NOAA Says Another Active Atlantic Hurricane Season is Expected in 2021

May 21, 2021 by TWN Staff
NOAA Says Another Active Atlantic Hurricane Season is Expected in 2021

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is predicting another above-normal Atlantic hurricane season. Forecasters predict a 60% chance of an above-normal season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season. However, experts do not anticipate the historic level of storm activity seen in 2020. 

For 2021, a likely range of 13 to 20 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which six to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including three to five major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher) is expected. NOAA provides these ranges with a 70% confidence. The Atlantic hurricane season extends from June 1 through November 30. 

“Now is the time for communities along the coastline as well as inland to get prepared for the dangers that hurricanes can bring,” said Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo. “The experts at NOAA are poised to deliver life-saving early warnings and forecasts to communities, which will also help minimize the economic impacts of storms.”

Last month, NOAA updated the statistics used to determine when hurricane seasons are above-, near-, or below-average relative to the latest climate record. Based on this update an average hurricane season produces 14 named storms, of which seven become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.

El Nino Southern Oscillation conditions are currently in the neutral phase, with the possibility of the return of La Nina later in the hurricane season. “ENSO-neutral and La Nina support the conditions associated with the ongoing high-activity era,” said Matthew Rosencrans, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “Predicted warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds, and an enhanced west African monsoon will likely be factors in this year’s overall activity.” 

“Although NOAA scientists don’t expect this season to be as busy as last year, it only takes one storm to devastate a community,” said Ben Friedman, acting NOAA administrator. “The forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are well-prepared with significant upgrades to our computer models, emerging observation techniques, and the expertise to deliver the life-saving forecasts that we all depend on during this, and every, hurricane season.”

Last year’s record-breaking season serves as a reminder to all residents in coastal regions or areas prone to inland flooding from rainfall to be prepared for the 2021 hurricane season. 

“With hurricane season starting on June 1, now is the time to get ready and advance disaster resilience in our communities,” said FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell. “Visit Ready.gov and Listo.gov to learn and take the steps to prepare yourself and others in your household. Download the FEMA app to sign-up for a variety of alerts and to access preparedness information. Purchase flood insurance to protect your greatest asset, your home. And, please encourage your neighbors, friends and coworkers to also get ready for the upcoming season.”   

A+
a-
  • hurricane forecast
  • hurricanes
  • NOAA
  • weather
  • In The News

    Health

    Voting

    Weather

    After Rare Flash Flood Emergency, Florida Prepares for More Heavy Rainfall in Coming Days

    FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. (AP) — A tropical disturbance has brought a rare flash flood emergency to much of southern Florida... Read More

    FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. (AP) — A tropical disturbance has brought a rare flash flood emergency to much of southern Florida as residents prepared to weather more heavy rainfall on Thursday and Friday. Wednesday's downpours and subsequent flooding blocked roads, floated vehicles and delayed the Florida Panthers on their... Read More

    Tornado Hits Michigan Without Warning, Killing Toddler, While Twister in Maryland Injures Five

    LIVONIA, Mich. (AP) — A toddler was killed and his mother was injured when a tornado struck suburban Detroit without... Read More

    LIVONIA, Mich. (AP) — A toddler was killed and his mother was injured when a tornado struck suburban Detroit without warning, while five people were injured when a tornado in Maryland collapsed structures and trapped people inside. Officials in Livonia, Michigan, said the tornado tore through several... Read More

    Phoenix Using Ice Immersion to Treat Heatstroke Victims as Southwest Bakes in Triple Digits

    PHOENIX (AP) — The season's first heat wave is already baking the Southwest with triple-digit temperatures as firefighters in Phoenix — America's... Read More

    PHOENIX (AP) — The season's first heat wave is already baking the Southwest with triple-digit temperatures as firefighters in Phoenix — America's hottest big city — employ new tactics in hopes of saving more lives in a county that saw 645 heat-related deaths last year. Starting this season,... Read More

    At Least 20 Dead in Memorial Day Weekend Storms That Devastated Several US States

    A series of powerful storms in the central and southern U.S. over the Memorial Day holiday weekend killed at least... Read More

    A series of powerful storms in the central and southern U.S. over the Memorial Day holiday weekend killed at least 20 people and left a wide trail of destroyed homes, businesses and power outages. The destructive storms caused deaths in Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas and Kentucky and were just... Read More

    May 24, 2024
    by Dan McCue
    Tornado Outbreak Takes Down Massive Wind Turbines in Iowa

    DES MOINES, Iowa — A tornado outbreak across much of the Midwest earlier this week brought utter devastation to the... Read More

    DES MOINES, Iowa — A tornado outbreak across much of the Midwest earlier this week brought utter devastation to the city of Greenfield, Iowa, and wreaked havoc on nearby wind farms located in Adair County. Until Tuesday’s tornado, Greenfield’s claim to fame had been that it... Read More

    Climate Change Could Virtually Disappear in Florida — at Least According to State Law

    TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (AP) — Florida, perhaps the most vulnerable state to sea-level rise and extreme weather, is on the verge... Read More

    TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (AP) — Florida, perhaps the most vulnerable state to sea-level rise and extreme weather, is on the verge of repealing what's left of a 16-year-old law that lists climate change as a priority when making energy policy decisions. Instead, the state would make energy... Read More

    News From The Well
    scroll top