AP Decision Notes: What to Expect in Florida’s Special Congressional Primaries

WASHINGTON (AP) — Control of the U.S. House isn’t on the line in Tuesday’s special congressional primaries in Florida, but Republicans are still eager to find replacements for former GOP Reps. Matt Gaetz and Michael Waltz to add some breathing room to their slender majority in the chamber.

President Donald Trump looms large in the race, in both Tuesday’s primary and the special general election on April 1. He’s endorsed candidates in both GOP primaries and easily carried both districts in the November election.

Trump has backed state Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis among a crowded 10-person field in Gaetz’s former 1st Congressional District. In Waltz’s 6th Congressional District, he endorsed state Rep. Randy Fine over two other candidates. Fine represents a Brevard County-based state Senate district located outside the Palm Coast-area seat he hopes to fill.

Gun control activist Gay Valimont is unopposed for the Democratic nomination in the 1st District. She challenged Gaetz for the seat in November, receiving 34% of the vote. Democrats George Selmont and Josh Weil compete for the nomination in the 6th District. Selmont is an attorney and filmmaker who ran for a neighboring congressional seat in 2018. He received 32% of the vote against GOP Rep. John Rutherford. Weil is a public school educator in Osceola County.

The 1st Congressional District borders Alabama on the Gulf Coast in the westernmost part of the Florida panhandle. It is home to both Naval Air Station Pensacola and Eglin Air Force Base. The district is among the most reliably Republican areas of the state. The four counties that make up the 1st District have voted for Republican presidential candidates almost continually for the past 60 years.

On the other side of the state, the 6th Congressional District sits on the Atlantic Coast and includes Daytona Beach. Republican presidential candidates have carried all six counties in the district for the last four presidential elections. The Republican winning streak in some of the counties stretches back for decades before that. Lake County, for instance, hasn’t supported a Democrat for president since Franklin Roosevelt in 1944.

Trump’s support should carry considerable weight in both districts. His weakest performance in either district in last year’s general election was in Escambia County in the 1st District, where he received 59% of the vote.

In the November general election, Gaetz and Waltz won reelection with 66% and 67% of the vote, respectively. Gaetz resigned after Trump nominated him to be attorney general, but he later withdrew from consideration following ongoing scrutiny over a federal sex trafficking investigation and a House Ethics Committee investigation. Waltz resigned Monday to become White House national security adviser.

The Associated Press does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow the trailing candidates to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

Machine recounts in Florida are automatic if the vote margin is 0.5% of the total vote or less. If the machine recount results in a vote margin of 0.25% of the total vote or less, a manual recount of overvotes and undervotes is required. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is eligible for a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

Here’s a look at what to expect on Tuesday:

Special Primary Day

The special primaries in Florida’s 1st and 6th Congressional Districts will be held Tuesday. Polls close at 7 p.m. local time, which is 7 p.m. ET in the 6th District and 8 p.m. ET in the 1st District.

What’s on the Ballot?

The AP will provide vote results and declare winners in the Republican primary in the 1st Congressional District and the Democratic and Republican primaries in the 6th Congressional District. A Democratic primary will not be held in the 1st District as there is only one candidate.

Who Gets to Vote?

Florida does not allow voters registered with one political party to vote in another party’s primary. Democrats may not vote in the Republican primary or vice versa. Independent or unaffiliated voters may not participate in either primary.

What Do Turnout and Advance Vote Look Like?

As of October 2024, Florida’s 1st Congressional District had about 301,000 active registered Republicans and about 117,000 active registered Democrats. The 6th District had about 262,000 active registered Republicans and about 138,000 active registered Democrats.

Turnout in the August Republican congressional primaries was about 34% of registered Republicans in the 1st District and about 31% in the 6th District. Democrats did not have competitive primaries in those districts.

As of Friday morning, more than 11,000 ballots had been cast in the 1st District Republican primary, nearly 17,000 in the 6th District Republican primary and nearly 10,000 in the 6th District Democratic primary.

How Long Does Vote-Counting Usually Take?

In the 2024 general election, the AP first reported results in the 1st Congressional District at 8:01 p.m. ET, or one minute after polls closed. The election night tabulation in the 1st District ended at 1:33 a.m. ET with about 99% of total votes counted. In the 6th Congressional District, the first batch of votes was reported at 7 p.m. ET, just as polls closed. The last vote update of the night was at 11:48 p.m. ET, with about 99% of the vote counted.

Are we there yet?

As of Tuesday, there will be 63 days until the special general elections in Florida’s 1st and 6th Congressional Districts.