Johnson Confident ‘Demographic Shift’ Will Buoy Republicans in 2024

WASHINGTON — House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., predicted this week that a demographic shift in the electorate will result in many longtime Democratic voters opting to support Republican candidates this year.

Johnson, now nine days shy of his one-year anniversary as speaker, has campaigned in more than 220 cities in 40 states this election cycle, and he’s vowed to visit another 65 cities in the final three weeks of the 2024 campaign.

Speaking with NBC News prior to a campaign event in Hellertown, Pennsylvania, last Thursday, the House speaker sounded like a man who is gaining confidence from what he’s seeing on the road.

“When we do the math on the other side of this election, this will bear out that we will have had a demographic shift,” Johnson told NBC’s Scott Wong.

“I think we’re going to have a record number of Hispanic and Latino voters. I think a record number of Black and African American voters, Jewish voters, union voters. I’m talking to all these groups of people,” he continued. “And they’re not just coming on board reluctantly; they are excited.”

If Johnson is right, the GOP should significantly increase their current three-seat majority in the House.

The speaker himself certainly appears to be doing all he can to make that happen.

Thanks to the campaign calendar in Louisiana, which has Johnson running in a primary he’s widely expected to win handily on Nov. 5, with a general election not being held until Dec. 7, the speaker has had plenty of time to barnstorm the country without distractions and also, to raise money, lots of it.

According to a press release his office sent to The Well News this week, Johnson raked in $27.5 million in the third quarter of this year— a number that his staff says is a new record for a Republican speaker during that period of time in a presidential year.

Johnson’s impressive haul includes more than $19.4 million for his own fundraising committees and $8.1 million for individual members and candidates. 

According to his team, Johnson has now raised a total $70 million since being elected speaker last October and contributed more than $30 million into Republican campaign accounts across the country.

In addition, the Congressional Leadership Fund, the speaker’s endorsed Super PAC, raised $81 million in the quarter — which his team says is also a record — and a total of $196 million since last year.

The release noted that Johnson has also transferred more than $26 million to the National Republican Congressional Committee, which works to elect Republicans to the House.

“With less than one month until the most important election of our lifetimes, another strong quarter shows voters are motivated down the stretch and ready to elect Republicans up and down the ballot to fix our economy, secure the border, and restore peace through strength,” Johnson said in a statement accompanying the fundraising announcement.

As for the assertion of a demographic shift, Johnson told NBC News he attributed it to a “real erosion” of the Democratic base that he believes is not “fully registered in the national polling.”

“What I’m seeing on the ground — and it’s not just red states, it’s the blue states — is that there’s something happening. And I’m convinced we’re going to win the House, the White House and the Senate,” he told Wong.

As for his own political future, Johnson will face a political newcomer, Republican Joshua Morott in the nonpartisan primary in Louisiana’s 4th Congressional District on Nov. 5.

Johnson has held the seat since 2016. In answer to questions posed by Ballotpedia, Morott said he’s running against the status quo in Washington.

“The American people have endured far too long the wasteful spending and constant nickel-and-diming by politicians while they sell out to special interests and prioritize pet projects over our needs. It’s time for a change,” he said.

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