How Has the Electorate Changed Since Trump? The Gender Gap is Wider, Research Shows

WASHINGTON — There are several noticeable changes in the makeup of the Democratic and Republican parties since Donald Trump won the 2016 presidential election, according to the Pew Research Center.

Reports of a widened gender gap and more minorities leaning Democrat come as former Vice President Joe Biden is now the betting favorite to defeat Trump in November’s election.

The gender gap has widened by 6 percentage points since 2015, Pew data shows. Fifty-six percent of women are Democrat or lean left, which is more than any other year since 1994, while 38% of women lean Republican or conservative, research shows.

That’s an 18-point gap toward Democrats among women, but it’s not the widest the political affiliation gender gap has ever been. In 2008, women leaned Democrat or left by 21%, according to Pew data.

Pew’s analysis is based on surveys of more than 360,000 registered voters in the last 25 years. It surveyed 12,000 people in 2018 and 2019, making up the most recent data.

But while women have leaned more Democratic the past few years, men still lean Republican by an 8% advantage — the same as 2015. The 50% of male voters who are Republican or lean Republican is the most since 2002, according to Pew.

The average gender gap from 1994 to 2014 in party affiliation was 9 points, but it’s now 14 points, according to Pew.

White voters continue to lean toward the GOP, but minority populations are growing in their support for Democrats. There is a 73-point lead for black voters in the Democratic Party, compared to 71 points in 2015. Democrats’ lead among Hispanic voters grew from 29 to 34 points, while Asian Americans now have a 65-point preference for Democrats after a 26-point advantage in 2015, according to Pew.

Sixty-four percent of registered voters have not completed college, according to Pew. Fifty-nine percent of white noncollege voters leaned toward the Republican party in 2018 and 2019 — up from 56% in 2015, according to Pew. This represents more than half of all GOP voters.

Among white people with college degrees, there is now a 12% gap toward the Democratic party. In 2015, the two parties each had 47% support from that demographic.

Research shows the electorate is slowly aging, as more than half of registered voters are more than 50 years old.

Baby Boomers and the Silent Generation each are Republican or lean Republican by 1%, but Democrats have growing support from the younger generations. Democrats have a 3-point lead among Generation X, while Millennials lean Democrat by a 16-point advantage.

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©2020 McClatchy Washington Bureau

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