Will Hydrogen Cars Win the Green Energy Race?

COMMENTARY

BMW’s recent announcement of its plan to bring its first fuel cell car to the market in 2028, a result of collaboration with Toyota, drew little fanfare amidst a deluge of coverage about the growing U.S. customer disinterest in EVs.

High prices and costs of maintenance, safety concerns, short battery life and lack of access to sufficient charging stations for long-distance drives are just some of the reasons for the slowdown in purchases of new electric cars. 

By contrast, hybrid models are surging in popularity. Seemingly, hybrid vehicles have the best of both worlds: moderate prices, the option to switch to gas and durability.  

Companies are watching the market trends and investing in production accordingly. Several automotive leaders are scaling back or delaying the production of new EVs altogether; some are spending billions on combustion engines, and still others are seeing an uptick in hybrid vehicle production. These include Ford Motor Company, General Motors, Mercedes-Benz, Volkswagen, Jaguar Land Rover and Aston Martin. Ford and GM are two of the companies that have invested heavily in combustion engine output. 

The question is, will hydrogen-based innovation disrupt this trend or will hydrogen cars end up being just another hyped up fad, to fade away after a moment of excitement? 

Skepticism about the utility of hydrogen for mass production in the world of renewables, where numerous options are competing for attention and R&D investments, has been fairly pronounced, even among the vociferous promoters of innovation.  

Some of the criticism of hydrogen-powered vehicles includes insufficient cleanliness, the high cost of R&D and, in terms of transportation, bulkiness. Efforts in producing hydrogen-based planes so far stumbled into the issue of space — long-distance commercial flights appear out of the question for the time being, and even in the event this option becomes viable, planes would need to be redesigned to include less baggage and larger compartments for hydrogen tanks. 

Despite the fact the Biden administration authorized generous funding for an ambitious plan to build seven hydrogen hubs across the United States, the practical outcomes of hydrogen-based innovation remain largely theoretical and unproven. Moreover, given that the first mass-produced hydrogen car is not set to launch until 2028, excitement for the new technology could indeed be premature. On the other hand, in launching this design, BMW and Toyota managed to solve the challenge of the bulky hydrogen tanks and batteries.  

Moreover, fuel cell technology offers a way to bypass many of the concerns related to the lithium-ion battery, which even with improvements in battery life, remain pricey and fraught with safety concerns. For example, geopolitical and human rights concerns around lithium abound. The United States is still in the early stages of being able to mine and refine sufficient quantities of its own lithium, and although India has approved lithium for export to challenge China’s dominance, reliance on any foreign supplier presents both pricing and supply chain concerns. 

China’s near monopoly on this essential element, and environmental and human rights concerns around mining conditions in non-Western countries, present the U.S. government with a variety of pressure points and challenges. 

However, fuel cell technology could eliminate this issue altogether. FTC is a method of generating electricity by converting the chemical energy stored in a fuel, like hydrogen, into electricity through an electrochemical reaction with oxygen, producing only water vapor as a byproduct, making it a clean energy source. It works continuously if fuel is supplied, essentially acting like a battery that doesn’t need recharging. 

Despite questions about expense and environmental impact, some of the FTC features appear far more promising than EVs at their peak: BMW’s iX5 Hydrogen has a fuel cell stack that generates electricity by combining hydrogen and oxygen from the air. It has a range of up to 300 miles on a full tank of hydrogen and can refuel in three to four minutes, making it comparable to a combustion engine in recharging efficiency.

It has 401 horsepower and can accelerate from zero to 60 mph in less than six seconds. It also has a small battery that can act as a temporary storage for energy. Unlike some EVs, it is unlikely to freeze up in colder climates. Another plus, due to the nature of its batteries, it may not suffer the same safety issues as the “exploding” EVs currently on the market. 

Furthermore, a growing number of EVs have been recalled for various issues, with safety features taking a back seat to battery-related needs and environmental preferences. The new hydrogen feature would eschew some of these concerns with a regenerative braking system, which would use the electric motor to slow the car down and use air suspension to ensure a smoother ride. 

Still, many questions remain, particularly related to the costs of production and maintenance of the vehicle.

Can hydrogen R&D ever reach the point of sufficient funding to justify mass production? One of the challenges facing the automotive industry in this regard is marketing. So much funding has been spent on EV lobbying and “buy-in” that breaking into the existing markets and challenging EV producers and enthusiasts alike could be major hurdles. 

More importantly, hybrid cars already present such a popular array of features that U.S. customers may prefer to stick with the tried and true, particularly after the promise of the last great thing — EVs — proved to be a disappointment in many respects.

Irina Tsukerman is a national security lawyer based in New York. She is a member of the American Bar Association’s Energy and Environment, and Science and Technology sections. She has appeared in the media all over the world as a geopolitical specialist dedicated to actionable analysis, and her writings and comments have been translated into over a dozen languages. She can be reached on LinkedIn.