Cuomo for NYC Mayor Isn’t a Given

COMMENTARY

As New York Democrats vied on stage recently to be the next mayor of America’s largest city, former Gov. Andrew Cuomo bore the brunt of attacks by the other hopefuls. He had a target on his back for raising the most funds out of all the Democratic candidates, leading most conducted polls by double-digits, and amassing the most significant number of high-profile endorsements.

Still, Cuomo shouldn’t bank on statistics alone to deliver him victory, especially after a lackluster debate performance. While he’s limited his public appearances, resting on the support he’s already drummed up, recent criminal investigations into his administration’s COVID-19 response and congressional testimony pose new roadblocks to his victory.

On top of that, newfound momentum for rival Zohran Mamdani, coupled with New Yorkers’ lingering resentment for Cuomo’s last term, don’t help.

In the primary’s final stretch, the Cuomo campaign cannot afford complacency.

It needs to play offensively. He needs to run like he’s losing. Doing so can help him reclaim the surrounding narratives, prevent any last-minute surges from other candidates, and get closer to a political comeback.

The newly opened criminal probe is perhaps the greatest threat to Cuomo’s victory. House Republicans argue that he lied to the U.S. House Oversight Committee about his involvement in reviewing health reports, and speaks to his greater negligence in stopping the spread of COVID-19. Rivals pounced on these developments and related “regrets” at the mayoral debate, painting Cuomo as corrupt and unreliable.

The ex-governor claims he is another victim of Trump-induced lawfare and is attempting to fundraise off it, but the investigation has merit from previous findings. A separate 2021 investigation by New York Attorney General Letitia James found that Cuomo undercounted COVID-related deaths in nursing home patients by 50%. Another 2022 audit by State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli determined that, from April 2020 to February 2021, Cuomo’s health department didn’t report 4,100 COVID deaths.

Unfortunately for Cuomo, New Yorkers have good memories. A 2024 Slingshot Strategies poll saw him suffering from the worst favorability rating among state voters, with a measly 33%. Cuomo’s approval hasn’t recovered much since entering the race, now standing at 37% approval after months on the campaign trail, according to Siena College. Former State Rep. Michael Blake made sure to remind city residents of why that was at the debate: Cuomo has a checkered personal and political history.

For a highly recognizable figure in a statewide political dynasty, any bad optics stick, including one-off remarks from 2008. As a political leader who resigned after a sexual harassment scandal and five criminal investigations by district attorneys, Cuomo has little margin for error. The Department of Justice debacle confirms voter apprehension regarding Cuomo’s governing ability and raises questions about his campaign themes of strong crisis leadership and credibility. The situation will raise doubts among voters about Cuomo’s character and transparency, even if no charges ultimately arise.

NYC voters have seen this same episode unravel with their current mayor, Eric Adams, who was indicted on, but not charged with, bribery, fraud and illegal campaign donations. Voters subsequently tanked his approval rating to an embarrassing 20% — a 30-year low for the office — with 56% wanting him to resign. He, too, is seeking reelection. Some low-information and unaffiliated voters will inextricably link Adams’ and Cuomo’s troubles and vote for another candidate to restore the integrity of the post.

In this sense, Cuomo isn’t only running for New York City’s future; he’s dodging his own past in a desperate attempt to defy expectations of the mayor’s office.

While Cuomo touts himself as the answer to what he sees as a crooked political establishment, Mamdani is capitalizing on his competitor’s troubles.

The state assemblymember’s clean political record has skyrocketed him from a relatively unknown politician to second in the field, partly by being a foil to the former governor.

While older, moderate voters anchor Cuomo’s support with large donations, Mamdani sparred with Cuomo over this select appeal. Mamdani relies on small donors and social media outreach to catalyze his campaign, now only eight points behind Cuomo in a hypothetical head-to-head with three weeks left. As he shores up crucial endorsements, including the highly-coveted AOC endorsement, outlets dub him as Cuomo’s “chief rival.”

To maintain the lead, Cuomo must revise his debate strategy and confront his errors head-on at any event he can attend. Through a blitz campaign of interviews, town halls and unscripted forums, he needs to address the long-standing gripes of skeptical voters, particularly with his COVID-19 mismanagement, to rebuild trust. Dually, it’s how Cuomo energizes the Orthodox Jewish and Black church blocs that already support him and creep into Mamdani’s territory.

But contrition alone won’t be enough to counter Mamdani’s appeal, particularly among young voters wooed by the assemblymember’s socialism. Housing and affordability are the core concerns among NYC voters, and Mamdani offers democratic socialism and economic populism as solutions, even as some contend it would destroy the city’s working class. Mamdani has built a coalition of Muslim, South Asian, young leftist and disaffected voters on the hopes that it could work.

Cuomo must offer concrete plans for reform.

Whether it be independent commissions for the justice system, funding for law enforcement or deciding health insurance costs, Cuomo can’t run on assumptions or his old record. NYC’s problems demand active participation, understanding and an implementable vision from those seeking to fix them; talking in abstracts or about the past won’t suffice.

The Cuomo for Mayor campaign needs a reality check if it’s serious about winning.

An apology tour isn’t needed, but humility and clarity can attempt to make amends, fend off challengers and introduce new ideas. If Cuomo can’t come to terms with his standing fast, voters should rudely awaken him on June 24.

Alex Rosado is a political, cultural and consumer freedom writer for Young Voices and writes in his personal capacity. He can be found on X.