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Presidential Polling Suggests Narrowed Contest for Swing State

September 3, 2020 by Sara Wilkerson
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

The presidential race between Republican incumbent Donald Trump and Democratic nominee Joe Biden is tightening in the battleground state of Pennsylvania, a new poll from Monmouth University shows, with Biden holding a 4-point lead over Trump in the key swing state.

According to the report, 49% of registered voters who were polled stand with Biden, while 45% support Trump for reelection. The gap between the candidates has narrowed over the past six weeks as Biden previously held a 13-point lead over Trump in July, 53% to 40% respectively. 

Biden leads Trump narrowly in a voter model comparing the candidates with 2016 voter data. In a high voter turnout scenario, Biden leads 49% to Trump’s 46%. In the case of lower voter turnout, Biden’s lead narrows further with a 48% lead to Trump’s 47%. 

“This is really a game of inches. The Trump campaign is looking to peel off a little bit of Biden support here and a little bit there. It may be working, despite the fact that Pennsylvania voters personally like the Democrat more, although this gap has narrowed,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute. 

The report comes after both candidates were officially nominated at their party’s national conventions in the month of August. Four hundred registered voters were polled by the independent polling institute between August 28-31. 

Of those responding to the poll, voters favor Biden over Trump in narrow margins. 48% have favorable views of Biden, while 46% have an unfavorable view of the Democratic nominee. When it comes to Trump, 44% of voters have a favorable view of Trump, whereas 51% of voters have an unfavorable view of the incumbent. 

In terms of voter demographics, Biden polls favorably with women (59%) but has lost an edge to Trump when it comes to men. Only 37% of men favor Biden, whereas 56% of men prefer Trump. Additionally, Biden leads among voters aged 65 and older (53%) as Trump polls ahead in the 50 to 64 age group (54%). 

Meanwhile, when asked about how they feel about the upcoming presidential election, 63% of Pennsylvania voters say they are somewhat or very optimistic about the race as 30% of voters in the state say they’re pessimistic about the election. 

Pennsylvania remains a key state for both candidates to win in the 2020 election considering President Trump narrowly won the Keystone state against Hillary Clinton, 48.8% to 47.6%, respectively.

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