Post-DNC Poll Shows Harris, Trump Tied in Three Battleground States

CHICAGO — Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are now tied in three critical battleground states, according to a new poll from Rust Belt Rising, an organization that helps Democratic candidates with messaging and turnout.

The poll of 1,631 likely voters, the group’s first since the Democratic National Convention in Chicago last month, found the two candidates in a statistical dead heat in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

“[Vice President] Harris is talking about what people say would improve their economic circumstances: bringing down the costs of food and groceries, health care and prescription drugs, cutting middle-class taxes, and making it easier to afford a home or rent,” said Nancy Zdunkewicz of Z to A Research, which helped conduct the survey.

“Our poll finds several winning economic arguments for Democrats on the solutions to bring down costs,” she continued.

“Voters are looking for a strong economic agenda that raises taxes on the 1% and large corporations and imposes tougher penalties on price-gouging monopolies, so Democrats must continue focusing on these issues,” she said.

Overall the poll found Harris and Trump tied 46% to 46%, with Independent Robery Kennedy Jr., who just dropped out of the race, coming in third with just 3% of the vote.

“Not sure,” comes in next on the overall rating with just 3%, with the Green Party’s Jill Stein and the LIbertarian Party’s Chase Oliver each polling at just 1%.

When broken down by state the poll, which was conducted between Aug. 23 and Aug. 26, finds the two frontrunners deadlocked in Michigan and Wisconsin with 47% of the vote each, and tied again in Pennsylvania, with 46% of the vote each.

Kennedy, the leader in a group of independents candidates, has his best showing in Pennsylvania, where he is currently polling at 5%

After that his numbers plunged to 3% in Michigan and a lowly 2% in Wisconsin.

Kennedy is actually beaten by “not sure” by one percentage point in Wisconsin, while Chase Oliver trails the field in the state with 1% and Stein registers no support whatsoever.

In Michigan, “not sure” garners 2%, outdistancing both Stein and Oliver, who come in at 1% each.

The margin of error for the poll is ± 2.427%.

Along with its topline numbers, the poll goes on to assess the current political environment.

It finds that Harris has a substantially higher favorable rating than President Joe Biden 45%-36%, but her unfavorable rating comes in at 51%.

In this area her numbers, again, equal Trump’s, who also had a 45% favorable rating and a 51% unfavorable rating.

The real edge in the poll appears to be in their respective choice for vice president. 

In this category, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, has a 44% favorable rating, compared to Sen. J.D. Vance’s 38%.

Vance has a higher disapproval rating — 48% — compared to Walz’s 43%.

The poll also found that the so-called motivation gap that existed when President Biden was the nominee — in other words, how motivated are you to vote for your preferred candidate? — has closed.

Forty-five percent of Democrats say they are now much more motivated to vote, as do voters 18 to 34. Meanwhile, 51% of Black voters also say they are much more motivated to turn out in November.

On the issue front, a majority of Democrats participating in the poll ranked abortion rights and reproductive freedom as their top priority, while a majority of Republicans said their top issue is immigration.

“Abortion is a deal-breaker for many, and a Democratic strength,” the pollsters said.

While the state of the economy is generally viewed poorly, most Democrats believe Harris will take a different approach to managing it than that of Biden.

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