Buttigieg Grabs Slight Lead in Final Iowa Caucus Poll

February 3, 2020 by Dan McCue
FILE - In this March 8, 2019, file photo, an audience member arrives at a rally for 2020 Democratic presidential candidate at the University of Iowa in Iowa City, Iowa. More than two years have passed since the first presidential announcement, nearly $1 billion spent and numerous candidates have already come and gone. And yet, the Democrats' turbulent 2020 primary season officially begins Monday, Feb. 3, 2020. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall, File)

Former South Bend, Ind. Mayor Pete Buttigieg held a slight lead in a last-minute poll of Iowa Democrats, released by Focus of Rural America.

In a poll conducted for the Democratic group last week by David Binder Research, Buttigieg, who has been campaigning furiously around the state while many of his electoral adversaries are stuck in Washington for the Trump impeachment trial, leads the field with 19 percent of the vote.

Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., came in second in the poll released Monday, with support from 17 percent of voters, and former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., were tied for third at 15 percent.

The showings of Biden and Warren suggest an erosion in their support. Biden is down by 9 points since David Binder surveyed Iowa voters in early January.

Warren, meanwhile, is down three points.

Sen. Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., garnered the support of 11 percent of the vote, just under the 15 percent viability threshold necessary to claim delegates when the votes are counted.

Businessman Tom Steyer and Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, D-Hawaii, each took just 3 percent of the vote, and no one else climbed above 1 percent.

But perhaps the finding that will be most mulled by the various campaigns in these waning hours before the causes get under way is that only 51 percent of voters in the state said they were completely certain? they’ll vote for their chosen candidate Monday night.

The Iowa caucus, the first of more than 50 contests that will unfold over the next five months, will render Democratic voter’s first verdict on who they think is best positioned to take on President Donald Trump.

A poor showing in Iowa could cause a front-runner’s fundraising to slow and support in later states to dwindle, while a strong result can give a candidate much needed momentum that propels him or her to the nomination.

The survey was conducted Jan. 28-30 by phone and by text. A total of 300 likely 2020 caucus-goers completed the survey, which has a margin of error of ±5.7%.

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