TEXAS SENATE

Incumbent: Ted Cruz (R)
Challenger: Beto O’Rourke (D)
Current polling: Ted Cruz (R) 50, Beto O’Rourke (D) 47, (Emerson, 10/30)
Why this race matters: Conventional wisdom (and polls) suggest that Cruz is going to win in Texas, where Democratic candidates face almost insurmountable hurdles statewide. However, this year Democrat Beto O’Rourke has mounted a credible challenge to Ted Cruz, bringing in unprecedented fundraising hauls despite his refusal to take corporate PAC money. On paper, the numbers are not in O’Rourke’s favor, but there is no denying that he has inspired voters in the Lone Star State, so this will be one to watch on Election Day, with a Republican statewide lock uncertain in 2020 and beyond.