Trump-Kim Talks or Not, North Korea’s Nuclear Arsenal Apparently Continues to Grow

March 2, 2019by Victoria Kim
US President Donald Trump (R) walks with North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un during a break in talks at the second US-North Korea summit at the Sofitel Legend Metropole hotel in Hanoi on Feb. 28, 2019. (Saul Loeb/AFP/Getty Images)

SEOUL, South Korea — President Donald Trump traveled more than 8,000 miles to Vietnam and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un trekked more than 2,000, arguably for little more than a photo and a handshake.

In announcing the anticlimactic no-deal end to a whirlwind three weeks after Trump had told the world about his planned second summit with Kim during his state of the union address, the president said North Korea had promised to continue its freeze on nuclear testing.

For now at least, there would be no return to the fraught first year of Trump’s presidency in 2017, when North Korea test-fired a series of increasingly far-reaching missiles, raising the specter of striking the U.S. mainland, and detonated a hydrogen bomb underground, sending literal shock waves throughout Northeast Asia.

“I trust him and I take him at his word,” Trump told reporters this week. “But in the meantime, we’ll be talking.”

All the while, North Korea’s nuclear arsenal apparently continues to grow.

U.S. intelligence last summer estimated North Korea may have anywhere from 20 to 60 nuclear weapons. In 2018, North Korea likely produced enough plutonium and uranium for an additional five to seven nuclear weapons, researchers at Stanford have estimated, steadily adding to its stockpile.

Many of the country’s nuclear facilities are deliberately camouflaged, tucked away in mountains or hidden underground. Analysts scouring satellite imagery spotted signs of continued build-up at a network of at least 16 secret missile operating bases never acknowledged by North Korea.

Intelligence officials have said there is evidence North Korea has continued constructing new missiles, even after its leader last June signed onto an agreement with Trump to “work toward complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.”

The heart of the disagreement in this week’s failed talks in Hanoi lies in just how much of its nuclear arsenal North Korea is willing to give up at this juncture, and at what cost.

That negotiation is complicated by the fact that the full scope and extent of North Korea’s nuclear capabilities is difficult to know. The nation, which long ago booted out any international inspectors, has balked at the idea of providing an inventory of its weapons and facilities, saying it would be tantamount to handing over a target list.

In Hanoi, North Korea offered to shutter the only nuclear facility it has ever acknowledged having, a 300-building, three-square-mile complex at the center of its nuclear program.

Trump said that wasn’t good enough to cover North Korea’s asking price — relief from the vast majority of sanctions imposed on the country after a series of missile tests in 2016 and 2017 — because of other covert nuclear sites.

“As you know, there’s plenty left after that and I just felt it wasn’t good,” he told reporters. “That facility, while very big, it wasn’t enough … we had to have more than that.”

Allowing what amounted to billions of dollars in sanctions relief for only a part of North Korea’s nuclear program would “in effect put us in a position of subsidizing the ongoing development of weapons of mass destruction in North Korea,” a senior State Department official told reporters after the talks fell apart, speaking on condition of anonymity. “That is effectively the choice that we were presented with.”

The shutdown of Yongbyon, which includes North Korea’s only plutonium reactor as well as a uranium plant, would at least have limited the future growth of North Korea’s arsenal, said Vipin Narang, a nuclear proliferation expert and political science professor the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

“The nuclear program continues to grow; the talks have fallen apart,” he said. “Now we’ve got nothing. This is the risk of trying to get it all in one bite.”

North Korea’s vice foreign minister Choe Son Hui told reporters this week that Kim had made the best offer North Korea could make at this stage and said she worried he may lose the will to continue with the talks.

“Whether the U.S. will have another opportunity like this in the future, I cannot say for sure,” she said.

Trump has touted as a sign that his approach is working the fact that North Korea has not conducted a nuclear test since November 2017. But even without outwardly apparent testing, North Korea is “no doubt” continuing to enhance and expand its ballistic missiles, said Evans Revere, a former State Department official specializing in Asia.

Revere said Trump has essentially signaled to Kim: “As long as they’re not testing, the U.S. is willing to live with a nuclear North Korea.”

He said that in insisting on offering up only Yongbyon in the negotiations, Kim appeared determined to keep the negotiations away from the rest of their nuclear weapons program.

Noting that North Korea has agreed to give up Yongbyon twice in past nuclear negotiations, Revere said Trump had “dodged a bullet” by walking away from Kim’s offer in Hanoi.

Melissa Hanham, a senior research associate with the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies in Monterey, Calif., said Kim’s offer appeared to have been to permanently dismantle the entirety of the nuclear complex, unlike in past talks.

“In my mind going into the summit, I was worried they were going to shut down one reactor and when North Korea got mad they would start up the reactor again,” she said.

Hanham said the U.S. may have passed up on an opportunity to rein in, if not eliminate, North Korea’s nuclear weapons program.

“Obviously you want a magic wand to make the entire nuclear program disappear, but limiting fissile material production and capping the number of nuclear weapons North Korea could have is a good deal,” she said. “The Trump administration is making perfect the enemy of good.”

———

©2019 Los Angeles Times

Visit the Los Angeles Times at www.latimes.com

Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.


Notice: Undefined variable: pc_ID in /var/www/html/thewellnews/wp-content/themes/twentynineteen-child/template-parts/content/content-single.php on line 269


Notice: Undefined variable: primary_cat in /var/www/html/thewellnews/wp-content/themes/twentynineteen-child/template-parts/content/content-single.php on line 274

Hoyer Calls for 'Modernizing' House Approach to Staff Pay, Benefits
Congress
Hoyer Calls for 'Modernizing' House Approach to Staff Pay, Benefits
April 16, 2021
by TWN Staff

WASHINGTON - House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer told a Select Committee on Thursday that it's high time Congress was brought into alignment with the best practices of the private sector when it comes to employee recruitment and retention. Appearing before the House Select Committee on the... Read More

US Must Increase Pipeline to Face Cybersecurity ‘Cold War’
In The News
US Must Increase Pipeline to Face Cybersecurity ‘Cold War’
April 16, 2021
by Victoria Turner

The U.S. may be facing or even in the midst of a cybersecurity “cold war,” said Dr. Mark Hagerott, chancellor of North Dakota University System, at a West Governors’ Association event entitled, “Solving the Cyber Workforce and Skills Shortage.” On the heels of the White House... Read More

35 States at Extreme Risk of Partisan Gerrymandering
In The States
35 States at Extreme Risk of Partisan Gerrymandering
April 16, 2021
by TWN Staff

Thirty-five states are at extreme or high risk of partisan gerrymandering, according to an in-depth report by the nonpartisan RepresentUs organization. The Gerrymandering Threat Index rates all 50 states, and its authors argue their findings underscore the urgent need to pass the redistricting reforms within the... Read More

Virginia Expands COVID-19 Vaccine Eligibility to All Adults
In The States
Virginia Expands COVID-19 Vaccine Eligibility to All Adults
April 16, 2021
by TWN Staff

RICHMOND -- The Commonwealth of Virginia is expanding eligibility to get a COVID-19 vaccine to anyone 16 or older, beginning Sunday. The expansion of eligibility comes as Virginia reaches a new milestone in its vaccination program— approximately half of all adults in the Commonwealth have received... Read More

New Guidance Issued on COVID Relief State and Local Governments
Treasury
New Guidance Issued on COVID Relief State and Local Governments
April 16, 2021
by TWN Staff

WASHINGTON - The Treasury Department has released updated guidance on its pre-award requirements for state and local governments to receive direct coronavirus relief payments under the American Rescue Plan Act. It particular the guidance outlines the “immediate” steps municipalities need to take to get in line... Read More

Disease Experts Look to the End Of Pandemic But Aren't Sure When
Health
Disease Experts Look to the End Of Pandemic But Aren't Sure When
April 16, 2021
by Tom Ramstack

WASHINGTON -- As the U.S. death toll reached 564,000 from COVID-19, the nation’s top disease experts said Thursday normal life will return for Americans only when enough of them get vaccinated. But with more than 70,000 new infections daily, they could not predict for Congress when... Read More

News From The Well
scroll top