AP Decision Notes: What to Expect in New York’s Primaries

WASHINGTON (AP) — Voters across New York state on Tuesday will pick nominees in municipal primaries that include high-profile comeback bids in New York City by a former governor and a former congressman who both left office mired in scandal.

At the top of the ballot, former Gov. Andrew Cuomo leads a crowded 11-candidate Democratic primary field for New York City mayor nearly four years after resigning from office following allegations he sexually harassed 11 women.

State Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani has also emerged as a major contender for the nomination, winning key endorsements from U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont and U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York. Also vying for the nomination are City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams and Comptroller Brad Lander.

The winner of the Democratic mayoral primary typically is the heavy favorite for the general election in overwhelmingly Democratic-leaning New York City. This year’s party nominee will face incumbent Mayor Eric Adams, who was elected as a Democrat but skipped Tuesday’s primary to run as an independent in November. Adams was indicted in a 2024 corruption case that President Donald Trump’s Justice Department later dropped. Curtis Sliwa, founder of the anti-crime patrol group the Guardian Angels, will once again be the Republican Party nominee.

In the Democratic primary for New York City Council District 2, former U.S. Rep. Anthony Weiner is seeking to return to elected office more than a decade after multiple sexting scandals ended his congressional career, doomed his 2013 mayoral bid and resulted in a 21-month federal prison sentence. Weiner faces four other candidates, including state Assemblyman Harvey Epstein.

A total of 30 City Council districts will hold contested primaries Tuesday.

Also facing a primary is Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg, who won a criminal conviction against Donald Trump in 2024. He faces a challenge from attorney Patrick Timmins.

The New York City contests use a ranked-choice voting system in which voters may rank up to five candidates in order of preference. If no candidate receives a majority of first-choice votes, the lowest vote-getter is dropped, with that candidate’s votes reallocated to voters’ next-highest choices. Ranked-choice voting is used only to determine winners in contests with more than two candidates in which no one receives a majority. The process is not used in any other jurisdiction in the state.

Across the state, voters will decide primaries for local offices, including a competitive contest for Buffalo mayor. In the Democratic primary, acting Mayor Christopher Scanlon seeks a full term after replacing Buffalo’s longest-serving mayor, Byron Brown, who resigned in October to head an off-track betting agency. He faces a tough challenge from state Sen. Sean Ryan, who has the endorsement of the county Democratic Party. Also running are City Council member Rasheed Wyatt, former fire Commissioner Garnell Whitfield Jr. and community organizer Anthony Tyson-Thompson.

The Associated Press does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow the trailing candidates to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

Under New York state election law, an automatic recount is triggered in races with more than 1 million votes if the margin of victory is fewer than 5,000 votes. For smaller races, the automatic recount is triggered if the margin of victory is either 0.5% or less, or up to 20 votes. In a ranked-choice election, if the margin between the final two candidates meets the recount threshold, then all the ballots in the election are recounted round by round. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is eligible for a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

Here’s a look at what to expect Tuesday:

Primary Day

New York will hold municipal primaries across the state on Tuesday. Polls close at 9 p.m. ET.

What’s on the Ballot?

The AP will provide vote results and declare winners in primaries for many of the top elected positions in New York City, including mayor, Manhattan district attorney, comptroller, public advocate and borough president of the Bronx, Brooklyn and Manhattan. Also covered are contested New York City Council primaries, mostly Democratic, in 30 districts and the Democratic primary for Buffalo mayor.

Who Gets to Vote?

New York has a closed primary system. Registered party members may vote only in their own party’s primary.

How are Ranked-Choice Voting Results Reported?

In New York City, initial vote results released on primary night will include preliminary tallies only of first-choice votes. These results are not final or official.

As these results are reported, the AP will call winners in races in which it’s clear a candidate will receive more than 50% of the vote, either in the initial count or once ranked-choice results are counted.

City election officials are expected to release preliminary results a week after the primary. This involves running the ranked-choice voting process on just the ballots that have been tabulated by that time. These results will not be final or official and may continue to change as all remaining ballots are processed and tabulated.

This means that it’s possible, at least in theory, that the leading candidate when preliminary ranked-choice voting results are released may go on to lose the election once all the ballots have been counted and the final ranked-choice voting results are determined. The AP will call a winner based on ranked-choice voting results if it’s clear another candidate cannot catch up when additional votes are counted.

What Do Turnout and Advance Vote Look Like?

As of Feb. 20, there were 5.1 million registered voters in New York City. Of those, 65% were Democrats and 11% were Republicans. About 1.1 million voters were not registered with any party.

Slightly more than 1 million voters cast ballots in the 2021 New York City primaries, about 27% of eligible voters, according to the city’s Campaign Finance Board. About 12% of ballots in that primary were cast before election day.

How Long Does Vote-Counting Usually Take?

In the 2024 presidential election, the AP first reported New York City results at 9:01 p.m. ET, about a minute after polls closed. New York City’s election night tabulation ended for the night in Queens at 12:25 a.m. ET with about 90% of total ballots counted across the city.

Are We There Yet?

As of Tuesday, there will be 133 days until the November general election.