
Survey: Business Economists Push Back US Recession Forecasts

WASHINGTON (AP) — A majority of the nation’s business economists expect a U.S. recession to begin later this year than they had previously forecast, after a series of reports have pointed to a surprisingly resilient economy despite steadily higher interest rates.
Fifty-eight percent of 48 economists who responded to a survey by the National Association for Business Economics envision a recession sometime this year, the same proportion who said so in the NABE’s survey in December. But only a quarter think a recession will have begun by the end of March, only half the proportion who had thought so in December.
The findings, reflecting a survey of economists from businesses, trade associations and academia, were released Monday.
A third of the economists who responded to the survey now expect a recession to begin in the April-June quarter. One-fifth think it will start in the July-September quarter.
The delay in the economists’ expectations of when a downturn will begin follows a series of government reports that have pointed to a still-robust economy even after the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates eight times in a strenuous effort to slow growth and curb high inflation.
In January, employers added more than a half-million jobs, and the unemployment rate reached 3.4%, the lowest level since 1969.
And sales at retail stores and restaurants jumped 3% in January, the sharpest monthly gain in nearly two years. That suggested that consumers as a whole, who drive most of the economy’s growth, still feel financially healthy and willing to spend.
At the same time, several government releases also showed that inflation shot back up in January after weakening for several months, fanning fears that the Fed will raise its benchmark rate even higher than was previously expected. When the Fed lifts its key rate, it typically leads to more expensive mortgages, auto loans and credit card borrowing. Interest rates on business loans also rise.
Tighter credit can then weaken the economy and even cause a recession. Economic research released Friday found that the Fed has never managed to reduce inflation from the high levels it has recently reached without causing a recession.
In The News
Health
Voting
Economy
BERKELEY, Calif. — An analysis of the impact of construction of large-scale solar energy projects on nearby residential home values... Read More
BERKELEY, Calif. — An analysis of the impact of construction of large-scale solar energy projects on nearby residential home values found the decline in property values varied significantly by state, but averaged out to a home sale price reduction of about 1.5% for homes within 0.5... Read More
WASHINGTON — The Commerce Department on Tuesday announced the availability of the first tranche of a total $50 billion in... Read More
WASHINGTON — The Commerce Department on Tuesday announced the availability of the first tranche of a total $50 billion in funding intended to grow and revitalize the nation’s homegrown semiconductor industry. The first funding opportunity seeks applications for projects to construct, expand or modernize commercial facilities... Read More
WASHINGTON (AP) — A majority of the nation’s business economists expect a U.S. recession to begin later this year than... Read More
WASHINGTON (AP) — A majority of the nation’s business economists expect a U.S. recession to begin later this year than they had previously forecast, after a series of reports have pointed to a surprisingly resilient economy despite steadily higher interest rates. Fifty-eight percent of 48 economists who responded... Read More
ARLINGTON, Va. — U.S. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack urged Congress on Thursday to use the upcoming farm bill reauthorization as... Read More
ARLINGTON, Va. — U.S. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack urged Congress on Thursday to use the upcoming farm bill reauthorization as an opportunity to encourage America’s farmers to diversify and “create multiple profit centers” in their farming operations. Speaking at the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s 99th annual... Read More
WASHINGTON (AP) — America's consumers rebounded last month from a weak holiday shopping season by boosting their spending at stores and restaurants... Read More
WASHINGTON (AP) — America's consumers rebounded last month from a weak holiday shopping season by boosting their spending at stores and restaurants at the fastest pace in nearly two years, underscoring the economy's resilience in the face of higher prices and multiple interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.... Read More
WASHINGTON — What consumes those inside the beltway and in mainstream media doesn’t always reflect the realities of mainstream Americans... Read More
WASHINGTON — What consumes those inside the beltway and in mainstream media doesn’t always reflect the realities of mainstream Americans or the communities in which they live. That was the consistent theme that emerged from last week’s “Building Resilient Communities” forum. Hosted by The Well News... Read More