Conference Board Says Consumer Confidence Rebounded in August

NEW YORK — Consumer confidence increased in August after three consecutive monthly declines, according to The Conference Board, the business membership and research group.

The organization’s latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® now stands at 103.2 (1985=100), up from 95.3 in July. 

The Present Situation Index — based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions — improved to 145.4 from 139.7 last month. 

The Expectations Index — based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions — increased to 75.1 from 65.6.

“Consumer confidence increased in August after falling for three straight months,” said Lynn Franco, the board’s senior director of economic indicators, in a written statement. 

“The Present Situation Index recorded a gain for the first time since March,” Franco continued. “The Expectations Index likewise improved from July’s nine-year low, but remains below a reading of 80, suggesting recession risks continue. Concerns about inflation continued their retreat but remained elevated.”

“Meanwhile, purchasing intentions increased after a July pullback, and vacation intentions reached an eight-month high,” she said. “Looking ahead, August’s improvement in confidence may help support spending, but inflation and additional rate hikes still pose risks to economic growth in the short term.”

In terms of consumers’ appraisal of current business conditions in August:

• 19.2% of consumers said business conditions were “good,” up from 16.3%.
• 23.2% of consumers said business conditions were “bad,” down from 24.2%.

At the same time, consumers’ assessment of the labor market was mixed:

• 48% of consumers said jobs were “plentiful,” down from 49.2%.
• However, 11.4% of consumers said jobs were “hard to get,” down from 12.4%.

When asked about their expectations regarding business conditions over the next six months:

• 17.5% of consumers expect business conditions will improve, up from 13.7%.
• 22.3% expect business conditions to worsen, down from 26.2%.

And here, consumers were more optimistic about the short-term labor market outlook:

• 17.4% of consumers expect more jobs to be available, up from 15.1%.
• 19.3% anticipate fewer jobs, down from 21.1%.

Consumers were also more positive about their short-term financial prospects:

• 15.8% of consumers expect their incomes to increase, up from 15.3%.
• 14.5% expect their incomes will decrease, down from 15.5%.

The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey®, based on an online sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Toluna, a technology company that delivers real-time consumer insights and market research through its technology, expertise and panel of over 36 million consumers. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was Aug. 23.

Dan can be reached at [email protected] and at https://twitter.com/DanMcCue.