Texas Primary Sets Stage for Abbott-O’Rourke Race, AG Runoffs
AUSTIN — Gov. Greg Abbott entered Tuesday with Trump’s endorsement and recent polls that suggested he had the support of about 60% of likely primary voters and he easily secured his party’s nomination in the contest that included several challengers who tried to pull Trump voters.
Also, Abbott’s margin of victory could signal the strength of his incumbency before he faces his Democratic opponent, Beto O’Rourke. O’Rourke, the former congressman, won the Democratic nomination with over 91% of the vote and easily obtained the nomination over four other Democratic gubernatorial candidates.
As the general election begins, the question will be what O’Rourke has learned since his last campaign. He lost a statewide race in Texas in 2018, when Democrats enjoyed a favorable national environment.
Votes were still being tallied overnight and early Wednesday morning. Just after the polls closed at 7 p.m. local time, Secretary of State John Scott’s office announced Harris County election officials would be late to report their official vote tallies and officials informed The Well News the results for Tarrant County were delayed by voting equipment issues and election staff shortages.
In Texas, candidates only win the party nomination if they surpass 50% of the primary vote. If a contest ends without any candidate reaching the golden 50% threshold on Tuesday, the top two vote getters will advance to a runoff on May 24.
Cuellar to Face Cisneros in Runoff
U.S. Rep Henry Cuellar, who was caught up in an FBI investigation weeks before his primary contest, will face progressive challenger Jessica Cisneros in a runoff for the U.S. House’s 28th District after neither candidate surpassed the threshold needed to secure the nomination.
Cisneros, who was running in a rematch against Cuellar, was supported in the race by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and other stars of the progressive wing of the Democratic party. She, along with progressive candidate Greg Casar who won the 35th District nomination, represents an alternative to moderate candidates who have historically dominated liberal politics in the state.
Early on, it looked like the outcome of the contest would mostly hang on the issue of abortion. Cuellar opposes abortion rights while Cisneros supports them and has been an outspoken critic of the state’s heartbeat abortion bill.
But the tone of the campaign changed last month after the FBI raided Cuellar’s home and campaign office. Though the target of the F.B.I. investigation remains a mystery, the Republican party is said to see the investigation as an opening, especially if national abortion rights organizations decide to play an outsize role in the general election.
Incumbent Attorney General Ken Paxton also heads to a runoff against Land Commissioner George P. Bush, the son of former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and grandson of former President George H.W. Bush.
Pat Flavin, professor in the Department of Political Science at Baylor University, told The Well News he was surprised to see Paxton fail to clear the 50% threshold to avoid a runoff. Flavin also said he thinks the May showdown for the Republican AG nomination could be a close one.
Rio Grande Valley Democrat Rochelle Garza is advancing to a runoff for her party’s AG nomination against either former Watergate special prosecutor Joe Jaworski or former ACLU attorney Lee Merritt. The primary elections in the Lone Star state effectively kicked off the 2022 midterm election cycle, and the turnout in this first set of contests suggests Republican voters continue to outnumber Democrats at the polls.
Former President Donald Trump endorsed 37 candidates in Texas Republican primaries, nearly all of them front-runners heading into Tuesday. These include Gov. Greg Abbott and stretch all the way down to folks running in Tarrant County races.
Seven of the 16 U.S. House incumbents Trump supports were unopposed on Tuesday. The rest hold huge fundraising leads over little-known challengers. As results continued to roll in Wednesday morning U.S. Rep. Michael Cloud, endorsed by the former president, took a wide lead and never looked back in the race for Congressional District 27 while former state Sen. Pete Flores advanced to a runoff against retired Air Force Lt. Colonel Raul Reyes for Texas’s 24th state Senate District.
State Sen. Dawn Buckingham cruised to roughly 42% of the vote for Texas General Land Office Commissioner, while Trump allies Sid Miller and Glenn Hager lead their party’s contest for Commissioner of Agriculture and Comptroller of Public Accounts, respectively, easily avoiding runoffs.
Trump-endorsed McKinney council member Frederick Frazier advanced to a runoff against Naval commander and realtor Paul Chabot for Texas’s vacant state House District 61 seat. State Rep. Mayes Middleton avoided a runoff for state Senate District 11, and Midland oil and gas businessman Kevin Sparks clinched state Senate District 31 seat with roughly 55% of the vote.
State Rep. Ryan Guillen, who earned Trump’s endorsement after switching from the Democratic Party to the GOP last fall, retained his district with 59% of the primary vote. Incumbent State Rep. Stephen Toth easily retained his district’s nomination with Trump’s support.
Trump also snubbed four representatives who voted to certify President Joe Biden’s victory on Jan. 6, 2022. The four are Rep. Van Taylor of Plano, Chip Roy of Austin, Dan Crenshaw of Humble and Tony Gonzales of Houston.
As of Wednesday morning, Taylor, who contended with a competitive group of candidates, fell just short of solely obtaining the 3rd Congressional District’s nomination with roughly 49% of the vote and will face former Collin County judge Keith Self. Roy, Crenshaw and Gonzales each easily defeated their primary challengers in their respective districts.
“I think it’s very likely that the front runners in those three elections will go on to win the runoff, particularly because they’re already very close to 50%,” Flavin told The Well News. “For the four candidates… that Trump didn’t endorse, it’s also important to note that he didn’t endorse a challenger in those races either. So, we don’t really have a good test of Trump’s influence in those districts. It is now pretty well established that Trump endorses in a ‘safe’ way — he overwhelmingly endorses front runners who are likely to win anyway.”
Going into Tuesday night, numerous runoffs were anticipated, mainly due to the fact that so many primary fields were crowded with candidates. Lt. Gubernatorial candidates Mike Collier and Michelle Beckley head to a May runoff for the Democratic nomination, while state Comptroller candidates Janet Dudding and Angel Luis Vega also head to a runoff.
Democratic General Land Office candidates Sandra Grace Martinez and Jay Kleberg will compete in a runoff for the right to face the winner of the Buckingham-Westley contest in the fall.
House Results
Though political pundits didn’t expect much in the way of surprises here, the outcomes of the races were still noteworthy due to the slim majority the Democrats hold in the House. Jrmar Jefferson, the Democratic frontrunner, will advance to a runoff against Victor Dunn for the nomination to the Congressional District 1 seat, and the highly competitive 15th Congressional District will be a runoff between Ruben Ramirez and Michelle Vallejo.
Harris County pastor Johnny Teague will face communications executive Tim Stroud for the right to face Rep. Lizzie Fletcher, who ran unopposed, in a runoff for Congressional District7. Teague led each of the six other candidates vying for the seat heading into Wednesday morning.
A pair of Houston-area educators will face each other in May for the Democratic nomination for the newly-established U.S. House District 38, as Diana Martinez Alexander led Duncan Klussman on Wednesday by a margin of 44% to 40%. The winner of that runoff will face Trump-endorsed candidate Wesley Hunt, a former Army captain and Iraq war veteran, in the fall election for the new district carefully carved out by Republican legislators during last year’s redistricting process.
Democrats Kathleen Cordelia Bailey and Tartisha Hill are poised to face each other in a runoff for U.S. House District 5, as are Eugene Howard and Mikal Williams in U.S. House District 14. In another crowded contest, Democrats Claudia Zapata and Ricardo Villareal will advance to a runoff for U.S. House District 21.
Republican Monica De La Cruz Hernandez easily won her party’s nomination for the 15th Congressional District and Incumbent Rep. Chip Roy retained the nomination for the 21st Congressional District despite drawing the ire of Trump. Trump-endorsed candidates Pat Fallon, Jake Ellzey and Wesley Hunt each took their party’s nominations for U.S. House seats while avoiding runoffs.
Reece can be reached at [email protected].
