After Sweeping Losses in Congressional Races, Texas Democrats Ask Why

WASHINGTON — When national Democrats helicoptered into Austin in April 2019 and set up an operation to flip GOP seats in the U.S. House in 2020 — a list that grew from six districts to 10 — they exuded confidence, and Republicans took notice.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee was fresh off gaining two Texas seats in 2018 and declared that the Lone Star State was “ground zero” for expanding the Democratic majority in the House.

Instead, GOP candidates won nine of the races, some by double digits, and Republican Beth Van Duyne is leading in a North Texas congressional race that has not yet been called.

“If you’re going to get hit by a truck, you want to see it coming,” said Matt Angle, director of the Lone Star Project, a Democratic political action committee in Washington and Texas.

He and other Democratic activists were especially surprised by losses in the predominantly Latino 23rd Congressional District, which runs from San Antonio to El Paso, and in the 21st Congressional District, where U.S. Rep. Chip Roy, a freshman Republican from Hays County, easily defeated Austin Democrat Wendy Davis.

And U.S. Reps. Michael McCaul, R- Texas, and Roger Williams, R- Texas, facing the same Democratic opponents as in 2018, won by larger margins.

What blew up Democratic chances?

There were several factors at play. In a presidential election year, the top of the ticket drives turnout and President Donald Trump, who won Texas by 5.8 points, found unexpectedly strong support from Latinos. Also, Roy and other Republicans deployed a strong ground game that was no match for Democrats who, amid the pandemic, relied largely on virtual campaigning. And Republicans capitalized on concerns over the Austin City Council’s move to cut police spending and Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden’s call to phase out the oil and gas industry.

Ten Texas congressional districts targeted by Democrats that Republicans held or are leading in:

2nd District: U.S. Rep. Dan Crenshaw, R- Texas, defeated Democratic challenger Sima Ladjevardian in the most expensive congressional race in the state — nearly $20 million was raised by both candidates — by 13.8 points.

3rd District: U.S. Rep. Van Taylor, R- Texas, beat Democrat Lulu Seikaly by 12.4 points in this district held for years by the late U.S. Rep. Sam Johnson, R- Texas.

6th District: U.S. Rep. Ron Wright, R- Texas, who has been battling cancer and was hospitalized for pneumonia in September, defeated Stephen Daniel by 9 points.

10th District: U.S. Rep. Michael McCaul, R- Texas, beat progressive Democrat Mike Siegel by 7.2 points, nearly 3 points better than his victory over Siegel in 2018.

21st District: U.S. Rep. Chip Roy, a Republican, was out-raised and outspent by feminist icon Wendy Davis, but won by 6.9 points in a district that sprawls from Austin to San Antonio and the Hill Country.

22nd District: Republican Fort Bend County Sheriff Troy Nehls defeated Democrat Sri Preston Kulkarni by 7 points in Kulkarni’s second run in the suburban Houston district.

23rd District: Republican Tony Gonzales finished 4.2 points better than Democrat Gina Ortiz Jones, who narrowly lost the border district in 2018 to retiring U.S. Rep Will Hurd, R- Texas.

24th District: Republican Beth Van Duyne, a former Irving mayor, holds a 1.3-point lead over Democrat Candace Valenzuela in a Dallas suburban district held by retiring U.S. Rep. Kenny Marchant, R- Texas.

25th District: U.S. Rep. Roger Williams, R- Texas, defeated Democrat Julie Oliver by 14 points, widening his 8.7-point margin over Oliver in 2018.

31st District: U.S. Rep. John Carter, R- Texas, beat political newcomer Donna Imam by 9.2 points.

“Latino support actually increased among Republicans in Texas” over 2016, said Rice University political scientist Mark Jones, who said Trump saw 40% Hispanic support.

The GOP had its own strategy against the Democratic game plan.

“We Republicans saw what was happening and had to step it up,” said former U.S. Rep. Henry Bonilla, R- Texas, who represented the 23rd District for 14 years.

That district, which has changed hands several times in recent elections, is a campaign challenge, with 800 miles of border and media markets in San Antonio and El Paso.

Democratic candidate Gina Ortiz Jones, a former military intelligence officer who nearly beat U.S. Rep. Will Hurd in 2018, was seen by pundits as the favorite against Republican Tony Gonzales, a former U.S. Navy cryptologist who first had to win a primary runoff. He won Tuesday by 4.2 percentage points.

Bonilla, who recruited Gonzales to run after Hurd announced his retirement, said he advised Gonzales to campaign in person as much as possible.

“This is a people business, and more people in this district want to know you,” said Bonilla, adding that personal contact is also part of Latino culture. “He would go out and have small gatherings.”

National Republican Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Rep. Tom Emmer, R- Minn., said there was another factor at play. “Sometimes, you’ve got to be a little lucky,” he told reporters.

” Tony Gonzales really reflects the district,” Emmer said. Jones, the Democrat, has Filipino heritage.

Emmer also said the Republican strategy of labeling Democrats as “radical socialists” over their government plans for health care and climate change resonated with voters.

Angle blamed the losses in part on gerrymandered districts drawn to disadvantage Democratic candidates, forcing them to form coalitions of diverse groups, such as suburban women, veterans and Latinos.

“If you don’t build that coalition, you will fall short,” he said.

Then there are the optics of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee presence. “It’s never smart for an organization to come into Texas and say, ‘we’re here,’ with flags flying,” Angle said. “That nationalizes it.”

All but one of the targeted districts ran through fast-growing suburban counties with increasingly diverse populations, thought to be receptive to a Democratic appeal. As those counties posted big turnout numbers during the early voting period, Democrats took it as a sign of good things to come.

“I believed we were going to deliver for Biden and turnout would be for Biden and a rejection of Trump,” said Democratic activist Christian Archer, a former strategist who ran campaigns in San Antonio. “There was big turnout, but first-time voters went solidly for Trump.”

And that was a boon for the Republicans running for Congress.

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(c)2020 Austin American-Statesman, Texas