States Could Be Most Impacted by a Blue Wave
November 5, 2018
WASHINGTON — Even as voters fixate on the fight for control of Congress, that other battle going on this election cycle — the one for power in the states — could prove most dramatic for the direction of the nation.
Democrats anticipate significant wins, retaking majority control of as many as a dozen state legislative chambers. If that happens, it would shake up the political order from coast to coast.
Since the early years of the Obama administration, Democrats suffered historic losses at the state level. That enabled the GOP to transform many state capitals into incubators for conservative ideology and policies. The legislative chambers have deeply cut spending, weakened organized labor and loosened gun safety laws. They have resisted action on climate change, curbed abortion rights and worked to unravel Obamacare, with many refusing federal money to expand Medicaid.
If election forecasts hold, those conservative efforts will be stymied in many places when the next class of state lawmakers assume their seats.
Moreover, Democrats appear to be positioned to gain full control over the governments of a few key states, including Colorado and New York, where power is currently split. Those states could join places like California in advancing liberal policies and more robustly challenging the Trump administration.
In other states, voters seem poised to bolster the power of Democratic governors by ending veto-proof legislative majorities Republicans hold.
“These elections are huge,” said Tim Storey, elections analyst at the National Conference of State Legislators. “Eighty percent of the seats are up … Democrats are optimistic that they can pick up eight to 12 chambers and make substantial gains in others.”
In some of those states, including Wisconsin and Maine, Republicans are also in danger of losing governors’ offices they have held for at least the last eight years.
The shift in power in the states comes as lawmakers prepare to redraw political districts nationwide after the 2020 Census. Victories this year would help position Democrats to erase many of the heavily gerrymandered districts that the Republicans have used to solidify their hold on Congress and state legislatures since 2010.
The existing voting districts benefit Republicans so much — and voters in some states have migrated so far from the Democratic Party — that even if the blue wave Democrats hope for builds into a tsunami, nobody
